消失吧！现金？

随着电子金融的兴起，我们使用现金的场合越来越少。德意志银行的联合首席执行官约翰·克赖恩(John Cryan)不是惯于夸张之人。然而，不久前，他的一番有关货币的话却可能让普通人感到惊讶。

测试中可能遇到的词汇和知识：

hyperbole 夸张法[haɪ'pɜːbəlɪ]

panel 座谈小组['pæn(ə)l]

uneven 不均匀的；[数] 奇数的[ʌn'iːv(ə)n]

blockchain 区块链(是比特币的一个重要概念)

cyber 网络的，计算机的['saɪbə]

curtail 剪短；剥夺…特权等[kɜː'teɪl]

阅读即将开始，建议您计算一下阅读整篇文章所用时间，并对照我们在文章最后给出的参考值来估算您的阅读速度。

The benefits of scrapping cash（641words）

By Gillian Tett

* * *

John Cryan, co-head of Deutsche Bank, is not a man given to hyperbole. A couple of weeks ago, however, he made a comment about money that might make ordinary mortals blink.

Speaking on a financial technology panel at Davos, he cheerfully predicted that in a decade’s time cash probably won’t exist. Yes, you read that right: all those grubby greenbacks and tattered euro bills in your wallet are heading for the dustbin of history. “There is no need for it,” Mr Cryan declared. “It is terribly inefficient and expensive.” Can we believe him? Not if you look at the data.

It is true that in recent decades, as electronic finance has taken hold, our use of cash has been declining. According to the Bank for International Settlements, outstanding cash in circulation was 7.9 per cent of gross domestic product in the largest 19 economies in 2014, the most recent available data; in 2010 it was 8.4 per cent.

But what is striking is not the fact that cash use has declined but how slow — and uneven — this trend has been. Indeed, if you look at the total volume of cash in circulation, rather than cash as a percentage of GDP, Sweden is the only leading western economy where it has recently declined. Elsewhere it has been rising. In Japan, Switzerland, the eurozone and the UK, the ratio of cash to GDP has actually grown.

In Japan today cash in circulation is more than 20 per cent of GDP, while in Switzerland the ratio is above 10 per cent. In the UK, this ratio is 3.7 per cent, higher than in 2010. Those smartphone bank accounts and innovations in blockchain technology might look flashy but they have not killed off paper money. Yet.

Why? It is partly down to consumer habit, coupled with a popular mistrust of banks in countries such as Japan that have suffered financial busts. Another factor is that millions of poor households, even in America, still do not use banks. Criminals, terrorists and tax-evaders also tend to use cash for their operations, particularly large denomination bills.

But the really interesting thing is what happens in the next few years. For there are at least three situations bubbling that could yet change this dynamic and prove Mr Cryan at least partly right.

First, and most obviously, digital and cyber finance is spreading rapidly. Second, some governments are belatedly realising that reduced use of cash is helpful in terms of security and fighting crime. After all, drug dealers and Islamist militants generally do not use bank accounts or mobile payments. So one way to cut terrorism and crime might be to withdraw the big denomination bills they prefer. The European Commission is already pondering this: it announced this week that it is looking at whether to curtail the use of €500 notes. This seems a sensible step, one that other governments should consider.

The third factor that could influence cash usage in the next few years is, again, the stance of central banks themselves. As rates turn negative, central bankers in places such as Switzerland are scrambling to prevent consumers dashing into cash as this not only makes financial transactions less efficient but also makes monetary policy less effective. After all, if people hold physical cash — which, unlike a bank account, is not directly affected by negative rates — central bankers have less control.

It may take longer than a decade for Mr Cryan’s prediction to come to pass; but it would be dangerous to discount it. For better or worse, the nature of money is changing. And who knows? If this revolution helps curtail tax evasion and terrorist finance — and makes our lives more convenient along the way, too — it might turn out to be one of the better developments to have emerged from the finance industry in recent years.

请根据你所读到的文章内容，完成以下自测题目：

1. When cash probably won’t exist just as John Cryan predicted?

a. ten years later

b. after Twenty Years

c. five years later

d. not mentioned

2. Which country’s volume of cash in circulation has declined recently?

a. Switzerland

b. Japan

c. Sweden

d. UK

3. What kind of payment methods do terrorists and tax-evaders prefer?

a. mobile payments

b. large denomination bills

c. instructions for bank transfer

d. postal remittance

4. Which one is not mentioned as the factor to threat the use of cash?

a. the use of €500 notes was curtailed

b. development of digital and cyber finance

c. the measure of fighting crime

d. the stance of central banks

[1] 答案a. ten years later

解释：John轻快地预测道，10年后现金很可能将不存在。

[2] 答案c. Sweden

解释：瑞典是近年流通现金总量减少的唯一主要西方经济体。其他国家的流通现金一直在增加。在日本、瑞士、欧元区和英国，现金与GDP的比率实际上有所增加。

[3] 答案b. large denomination bills

解释：犯罪分子、恐怖分子和逃税者倾向于使用现金，尤其是大面额钞票。

[4] 答案a. the use of €500 notes was curtailed

解释：欧盟委员会正在研究是否减少500欧元纸币的使用，是第二个原因导致的结果。