06 特朗普的狠话带不来“好工作”
美国制造业就业低迷的主因是需求疲软。特朗普无论做什么，都不会让制造业重新变成“好工作”的来源。
Blame foreigners first.This strategy is always the companion of aggrieved nationalism.It can be seen in Donald Trump's ban on immigrants from seven countries.It will be seen in his protectionism.A kernel of truth — terrorism and the direct impact of imports on jobs — bolsters a lie: my actions are enough to keep you safe and restore the prosperity you once knew.
首先责怪外国人。这种策略总是与愤愤不平的民族主义相伴。从唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)禁止7国移民入境便可以看出这一点。他的保护主义也会有这一点。一丁点事实——恐怖主义和进口对就业产生的直接影响——支撑了一个谎言：我的行动足以保你平安，恢复你曾经习以为常的繁荣。
At the heart of the US debate on trade policy is the story of jobs in manufacturing.The single most important fact is the steady decline in the share of jobs in manufacturing from about 30 per cent of total employment in the early 1950s to just over 8 per cent at the end of 2016.
美国贸易政策辩论的核心问题是制造业就业。最重要的事实是，制造业在总就业人数中的占比持续下滑，从上世纪50年代初的30%左右，降至2016年底的略高于8%。
The main explanation for the long-term decline in the share of manufacturing employment in the US (and other high-income economies) has been the rise in employment elsewhere.In 1950, employment in manufacturing was 13m, while that in the rest of the economy was 30m.By the end of 2016, it was 12m and 133m, respectively.Thus, all the increase in employment between 1950 and the end of 2016 occurred outside manufacturing.Yet output of US manufacturing was not stagnant.
Between 1950 and 2016, output rose 640 per cent, while employment fell 7 per cent.Even between 1990 and 2016 output rose 63 per cent, while employment fell 31 per cent.(See charts.)
对于美国（以及其它高收入经济体）制造业就业占比的长期下滑，主要解释是其他领域就业增长。1950年，制造业的就业人数为1300万，而其他经济领域的就业人数为3000万。到2016年底，两个数字分别为1200万和1.33亿。也就是说，从1950年到2016年底期间增加的就业都在制造业以外。不过美国制造业产出并没有陷入停滞。从1950年至2016年，产出增长了640%，与此同时就业人数减少了7%。即使在1990年至2016年期间，产出增长了63%，而就业人数减少了31%。（见图表。）
The explanation for the contrast between output and employment is rising productivity.Yet no one is proposing to stop this.Indeed, the problem is rather productivity's recent stagnation: in manufacturing, output per hour rose only 1 per cent between the first quarters of 2012 and 2016.As a result, employment rose a little.Yet this is a bad outcome: the economy needs rising productivity if it is to generate sustained improvement in living standards.
产出和就业形成如此反差的原因是生产率不断提高。不过没人提出要阻止这一趋势。的确，现在的问题是生产率在近年陷入了停滞：在制造业领域，从2012年第一季度至2016年，每小时产出仅增长了1%。其结果是就业略有增长。然而这是一个不好的结果：要想让人们的生活水平持续改善，经济需要不断提高的生产率。
Between 1997 and 2005, the US trade deficit in manufactures increased by 2.6 per cent of gross domestic product.But today it is at much the same level as in 2005, after shrinking during the financial crisis.How much bigger might output of manufacturing be if this increase in the trade deficit had not occurred? Make the plausible assumption that the impact on value added is some two-thirds of the gross value of the goods.Then the value added in manufacturing might be some 1.7 per cent of GDP higher.Suppose that the effect on employment would be proportionate.Employment in manufacturing would be some 2.5m bigger than it now is.This might have prevented half of the job losses in manufacturing since 1997 and raised manufacturing's share in employment to more than 10 per cent.
从1997年至2005年，美国制造业贸易逆差的增幅相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的2.6%。但在金融危机期间出现缩小后，如今的水平和2005年差不多。如果贸易逆差没有增长，现在的制造业产出可能会大出多少？让我们作一个合理的假设：对附加值的影响是对商品总值影响的三分之二。由此推算，制造业附加值大于当今实际水平的程度可能相当于GDP的1.7%。假设对就业的影响是成比例的。制造业就业人数会比现在多250万左右。这可能会阻止自1997年以来一半的制造业就业流失，并且把制造业就业在总就业人数中的占比提高至10%以上。
In sum, the increase in the trade deficit in the early 2000s had a significantly negative effect on employment in manufacturing, but next to none on the long-term decline in the share of overall employment in manufacturing.Even if the trade balance had remained unchanged in the early 2000s, there would still have been a big reduction in the share of employment in manufacturing from the late 1990s.For that, the main reason was weak demand: not surprisingly, the absolute declines in employment in manufacturing occurred during the two recessions, in the early 2000s and again in 2007-09.
简言之，2000年代初的贸易逆差增长对制造业就业产生了显著负面影响，但对制造业就业占总就业人数比重的长期下滑几乎没有影响。即使2000年代初贸易平衡保持不变，制造业就业在总就业人数中的占比仍然会比上世纪90年代末大幅降低。对此，主要原因是需求低迷：并不令人意外的是，制造业就业人数的绝对数下滑都出现在两次经济衰退期间：2000年代初和2007年-2009年期间。
What part of the rise in the trade deficit was due to the North American Free Trade Agreement and China's accession to the World Trade Organisation? Bradford DeLongof Berkeley concludes that it is quite modest.A more sophisticated analysis by Daron Acemoglu of MIT and others concluded that trade with China directly caused the loss of about 10 per cent of the total number of jobs lost in manufacturing between 1999 and 2011.But analysis of linkages among firms and the impact upon local demand gives far larger negative effects of between 2m and 2.4m jobs, though this is still less than 2 per cent of total employment.
贸易逆差上升的多大部分应该归因于《北美自由贸易协定》(NAFTA)或中国加入世界贸易组织(WTO)呢？伯克利(Berkeley)的布拉德福德·德隆(Bradford DeLong)得出结论认为，这部分相当有限。麻省理工学院(MIT)的达龙·阿西莫格鲁(Daron Acemoglu)等人所做的更复杂的分析总结称，对华贸易直接造成1999年至2011年间大约10%的美国制造业就业岗位消失。但对企业与当地需求所受影响之间关联进行的分析表明，负面影响远大于此，就业损失在200万至240万之间，尽管占总就业人数的比重仍然不到2%。
Two big points emerge.The first is that the effect of import competition is often geographically concentrated.This is a particularly big challenge in a country as large as the US.The best response must be a combination of helping affected communities to generate new sources of employment and assisting workers (and not just those directly affected) to gain skills and so new jobs.A part of the strategy must also be tohelp restore lost US mobility.
由此可看出两大要点。第一个是，进口带来的竞争影响往往集中于某些地理区域。这对美国这样幅员辽阔的国家来说是个格外重大的挑战。最佳回应只能是这样一套组合拳：帮助受影响的社区产生新的就业来源，同时帮助工人（而且不仅是那些直接受到影响的工人）掌握技能、从而获得新工作。该策略还必须包括帮助恢复美国失去的劳动力流动性。
The second point is the need to sustain demand and so ensure that new jobs replace the old ones in the economy as a whole.The orthodox view is that the US can always achieve full employment by active use of fiscal and monetary policy tools.Experience since 2000 and especially since the financial crisis suggests this may be difficult.As I have argued elsewhere, huge current account surpluses in some countries forced deficit countries into financial excesses as an (ultimately unsustainable) way to maintain demand in line with potential output.The crisis vindicated the concern of John Maynard Keynes about the potentially malign role of surplus countries in the global economy.
第二点是需要维持需求，以此确保在经济作为一个整体中，新就业能够替代旧岗位。正统观点是，美国总是可以通过积极地利用财政和货币政策工具来实现充分就业。自2000年、特别是金融危机以来的实验似乎表明，这可能很难实现。正如我已经在其他文章中论述的那样，某些国家巨大的经常账户顺差迫使逆差国家过度使用金融工具，作为维持需求与潜在产出相符的（最终不可持续的）方式。金融危机证明，约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)对于顺差国家在全球经济中可能起到有害作用的担忧是正确的。
Alas, the policies proposed by Mr.Trump and the congressional Republicans — a combination of piecemeal protectionism with a large fiscal stimulus as well as elimination of much of the social safety net — is likely to impose large costs on unprotected sectors, while leaving supporters even more desperate.Nothing he does will reinstate manufacturing to its lost role as the dominant provider of “good jobs”.Cheap imports and the ability to supply them have also brought big benefits to domestic consumers and foreign workers.
可惜，特朗普和共和党国会议员提出的政策——零打碎敲的保护主义，大规模的财政刺激，以及消除很大一部分社会保障——很可能让不受保护的领域承担巨大成本，同时让支持者更加绝望。特朗普无论做什么，都不会让制造业重新变成“好工作”的主要来源。廉价的进口产品以及供应它们的能力，也给国内消费者和外国工人带来了巨大好处。
The right approach would be proactive, not defensive: it would open global markets; it would force countries with huge surpluses to rely more on domestic and less on external demand; it would help workers and communities hit by adverse change, not abandon them; it would stop blaming foreigners for the “crime” of selling goods cheaply.Such policies would make excellent sense.Alas, they are not what we will see.
正确的政策姿态应该是主动积极的，而非守势的：它将打开全球市场的大门；它将迫使运行巨额顺差的国家更多地依靠内需、减少对外需的依赖；它将帮助那些遭受不利变化打击的工人和社区，而不是抛弃他们；它将不再责怪外国人“犯下”销售廉价商品的“罪行”。这类政策完全站得住脚。可惜我们不会看到这些政策。
词汇总结
bolster ['bəʊlstə]
n.支持；长枕
v.支持；支撑
A kernel of truth — terrorism and the direct impact of imports on jobs — bolsters a lie: my actions are enough to keep you safe and restore the prosperity you once knew.
一丁点事实——恐怖主义和进口对就业产生的直接影响——支撑了一个谎言：我的行动足以保你平安，恢复你曾经习以为常的繁荣。
monetary policy
货币工具
The orthodox view is that the US can always achieve full employment by active use of fiscal and monetary policy tools.
正统观点是，美国总是可以通过积极地利用财政和货币政策工具来实现充分就业。
current account
经常账户
huge current account surpluses in some countries forced deficit countries into financial excesses
某些国家巨大的经常账户顺差迫使逆差国家过度使用金融工具
malign [mə'laɪn]
v.诽谤，污蔑；中伤，说坏话
adj.恶意的，恶性的；有害的
The crisis vindicated the concern of John Maynard Keynes about the potentially malign role of surplus countries in the global economy.
金融危机证明，约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)对于顺差国家在全球经济中可能起到有害作用的担忧是正确的。
social safety net
社会安全网
A combination of piecemeal protectionism with a large fiscal stimulus as well as elimination of much of the social safety net is likely to impose large costs on unprotected sectors.
大规模的财政刺激，以及消除很大一部分社会保障很可能让不受保护的领域承担巨大成本。
