听力课堂TED音频栏目主要包括TED演讲的音频MP3及中英双语文稿，供各位英语爱好者学习使用。本文主要内容为演讲MP3+双语文稿:去吧、梦想未来，希望你会喜欢！
【演讲者及介绍】Charlie Jane Anders
《查理·简·安德斯》作者查理·简·安德斯写的小说和故事都是关于建立社区，发现我们最真实的自我，以及应对radica的变化。
【演讲主题】去吧、梦想未来
Go ahead,dream about the future
【中英文字幕】
翻译者Wanting Zhong 校对者Yolanda Zhang
00:13
Every science fiction writer has a story about a time when the future arrived too soon. I have a lot of those stories. Like, OK, for example: years ago, I was writing a story where the government starts using drones to kill people. I thought that this was a really intense, futuristic idea, but by the time the story was published, the government was already using drones to kill people.
每一位科幻作家 都写过一篇未来 实现得太快的故事。 我写过很多这样的故事。 比如说： 多年前，我正在写一个 政府开始用无人机杀人的故事。 我觉得这是个非常激越的、 超前的构想， 但是当故事发表时， 政府已经在用无人机杀人了。
00:44
Our world is changing so fast, and there's a kind of accelerating feedback loop where technological change and social change feed on each other. When I was a kid in the 1980s, we knew what the future was going to look like. It was going to be some version of "Judge Dredd" or "Blade Runner." It was going to be neon megacities and flying vehicles. But now, nobody knows what the world is going to look like even in just a couple years, and there are so many scary apparitions lurking on the horizon. From climate catastrophe to authoritarianism, everybody is obsessed with apocalypses, even though the world ends all the time, and we keep going.
我们的世界改变得太快， 处在一个加速的反馈循环中， 其中科技变革和社会变化 会互相推动、增进。 1980 年代，当我还是小孩时， 我们知道未来会是什么样。 那应当是某种版本的 《超时空战警》或是《银翼杀手》， 有充溢着霓虹灯的超级都市 和飞行的车辆。 但如今，没有人知道 仅仅在几年之后， 世界会变成什么模样。 在未来的地平线上 潜伏着如此多可怕的魅影。 从气候灾难到独裁统治， 每个人都醉心于世界末日， 哪怕世界一直在走向终结， 而我们依旧勇往直前。
01:32
Don't be afraid to think about the future, to dream about the future, to write about the future. I've found it really liberating and fun to do that. It's a way of vaccinating yourself against the worst possible case of future shock. It's also a source of empowerment, because you cannot prepare for something that you haven't already visualized. But there's something that you need to know. You don't predict the future; you imagine the future.
不要害怕思考未来， 去大胆的梦想未来， 书写未来。 我发现这是件非常好玩、 很能放飞自我的事。 这是一剂疫苗， 能帮你抵御未来可能发生的 最糟糕的冲击。 这也是一种赋能的来源， 因为你无法为某件 没有预想过的事情未雨绸缪。 但有某件事你应当清楚。 你不是在预测未来； 你是在想象未来。
02:04
So as a science fiction writer whose stories often take place years or even centuries from now, I've found that people are really hungry for visions of the future that are both colorful and lived in, but I found that research on its own is not enough to get me there. Instead, I use a mixture of active dreaming and awareness of cutting-edge trends in science and technology and also insight into human history. I think a lot about what I know of human nature and the way that people have responded in the past to huge changes and upheavals and transformations. And I pair that with an attention to detail, because the details are where we live. We tell the story of our world through the tools we create and the spaces that we live in. And at this point, it's helpful to know a couple of terms that science fiction writers use all of the time: "future history" and "second-order effects."
作为一名科幻作家， 我笔下的故事常常发生在 距今多年后，甚至若干世纪后， 我发现人们渴求的是 多彩、繁荣的未来图景， 但我也发现，仅凭研究 无法让我创作出那样的作品。 于是，我结合了积极梦想、 对科学与技术前沿趋势的认识， 以及对人类历史的洞察。 我对我所了解的人性 进行了大量思考， 并反思了在过去人们对待巨变、 颠覆与转变作何反应。 我将其与对细节的关注相结合， 因为我们正是生活在细节之中。 我们通过我们创造的工具 和居住的空间 来描述周遭的世界。 此刻，了解几个 科幻作家常用的术语 会大有帮助： “未来历史”和“二阶效应”。
03:08
Now, future history is basically just what it sounds like. It is a chronology of things that haven't happened yet, like Robert A. Heinlein's famous story cycle, which came with a detailed chart of upcoming events going up into the year 2100. Or, for my most recent novel, I came up with a really complicated time line that goes all the way to the 33rd century and ends with people living on another planet.
“未来历史”可以按字面意思理解， 它是还未发生的事件的年表， 比如罗伯特·海因莱因（Robert A. Heinlein's） 著名的故事循环， 附有一张未来事件的详细图表， 一直到 2100 年。 又比如我最近的一本小说， 我设计了一条特别复杂的时间线， 一直延续到第 33 世纪， 最后人们到了另一个星球上生活。
03:35
Meanwhile, a second-order effect is basically the kind of thing that happens after the consequences of a new technology or a huge change. There's a saying often attributed to writer and editor Frederik Pohl that "A good science fiction story should predict not just the invention of the automobile, but also the traffic jam."
而“二阶效应”指的是 一项新科技或是一次巨变 之后引发的那些事情。 有一句常被认为是出自作家兼编辑 弗雷德里克·珀尔（Frederik Pohl）的话： “一个好的科幻故事 不仅要预测汽车的发明， 还要预测交通堵塞。”
04:00
And speaking of traffic jams, I spent a lot of time trying to picture the city of the future. What's it like? What's it made of? Who's it for? I try to picture a green city with vertical farms and structures that are partially grown rather than built and walkways instead of streets, because nobody gets around by car anymore -- a city that lives and breathes. And, you know, I kind of start by daydreaming the wildest stuff that I can possibly come up with, and then I go back into research mode, and I try to make it as plausible as I can by looking at a mixture of urban futurism, design porn and technological speculation. And then I go back, and I try to imagine what it would actually be like to be inside that city. So my process kind of begins and ends with imagination, and it's like my imagination is two pieces of bread in a research sandwich.
说到交通堵塞， 我花了大量时间 试图描绘未来的都市。 它是什么样子的？ 是由什么组成的？ 是为了何人而建的？ 我试着设想一个 拥有垂直农场的绿色城市， 城市结构有部分不是修建的， 而是由生物生长而成的， 只有人行道，没有马路， 因为已经没人开车出行了—— 一个活着的、呼吸着的城市。 我由我所能想象的 最离奇的白日梦开始， 然后回到研究模式， 试图通过结合未来主义都市、 设计精品和科技猜想， 把它变得尽可能合理。 然后我会回头，试图想象 住在那个城市里 会是一种什么样的体验。 我的创作过程由想象开始， 以想象结束， 就好比夹着“研究三明治” 的那两片面包一样。
05:08
So as a storyteller, first and foremost, I try to live in the world through the eyes of my characters and try to see how they navigate their own personal challenges in the context of the space that I've created. What do they smell? What do they touch? What's it like to fall in love inside a smart city? What do you see when you look out your window, and does it depend on how the window's software interacts with your mood? And finally, I ask myself how a future brilliant city would ensure that nobody is homeless and nobody slips through the cracks.
作为故事的讲述者， 首先， 我要以我笔下角色的视角 生活在那个世界里， 并试图了解他们在 我所创造的空间背景中 是如何面对自身的挑战的。 他们闻到了什么味道？ 触摸了什么东西？ 在一个智能城市中谈恋爱 是种怎样的体验？ 当你望向窗外时能看见什么 是否取决于窗户的软件 如何与你的情绪互动？ 最后，我会问自己， 一个绚丽的未来都市 如何保证没有人会无家可归， 没有犯罪分子成为漏网之鱼。
05:43
And here's where future history comes in handy, because cities don't just spring up overnight like weeds. They arise and transform. They bear the scars and ornaments of wars, migrations, economic booms, cultural awakenings. A future city should have monuments, yeah, but it should also have layers of past architecture, repurposed buildings and all of the signs of how we got to this place.
这就是未来历史派上用场的地方， 因为城市不会像杂草一样 一夜之间突然拔地而起。 它们有崛起、转变的过程。 它们背负着战争、移民、 经济繁荣、文化觉醒 的伤痕与勋章。 一个未来城市应当有纪念碑， 但它也应当有一层层过去的建筑， 重新修葺的建筑， 还有我们如何抵达此处的 所有的印记。
06:13
And then there's second-order effects, like how do things go wrong -- or right -- in a way that nobody ever anticipated? Like, if the walls of your apartment are made out of a kind of fungus that can regrow itself to repair any damage, what if people start eating the walls?
然后还有二阶效应， 比如事情会如何以 出人意料的方式 变坏——或者变好？ 比如说，如果你的公寓墙壁 是由一种可以通过再生 来修复任何损伤的菌类做成的， 如果人们开始吃墙壁， 那该怎么办？
06:33
(Laughter)
（笑声）
06:34
Speaking of eating: What kind of sewer system does the city of the future have? It's a trick question. There are no sewers. There's something incredibly bizarre about the current system we have in the United States, where your waste gets flushed into a tunnel to be mixed with rainwater and often dumped into the ocean. Not to mention toilet paper. A bunch of techies, led by Bill Gates, are trying to reinvent the toilet right now, and it's possible that the toilet of the future could appear incredibly strange to someone living today. So how does the history of the future, all of that trial and error, lead to a better way to go to the bathroom? There are companies right now who are experimenting with a kind of cleaning wand that can substitute for toilet paper, using compressed air or sanitizing sprays to clean you off. But what if those things looked more like flowers than technology? What if your toilet could analyze your waste and let you know if your microbiome might need a little tune-up? What if today's experiments with turning human waste into fuel leads to a smart battery that could help power your home?
06:33
说到吃： 未来的城市会有怎样的 下水道系统？ 这是道陷阱题。 未来都市并没有下水道。 美国目前的下水道系统 相当诡异的一点是， 你的排泄物会被冲进管道里， 和雨水混合在一起， 通常会被倾倒进海洋中。 更别提厕纸了。 目前，由比尔·盖茨率领的 一群科技人员 正在致力于重新发明马桶， 或许未来的厕所 对今天的人们来说 会显得非常奇怪。 那么未来的历史， 所有那些试错过程， 能如何引领更好的如厕方式？ 现在有公司 正在测试一种清洗喷头 作为厕纸的替代品， 它会使用压缩空气 或者消毒喷雾帮你进行清洁。 但如果这些东西看起来 更像花朵，而不是科技呢？ 如果你的马桶能分析你的排泄物， 让你知悉你体内的菌群 是否需要一点调理？ 如果今天将人类排泄物 变成燃料的实验 能催生智能电池， 更好地为你的家供能呢？
07:45
But back to the city of the future. How do people navigate the space? If there's no streets, how do people even make sense of the geography? I like to think of a place where there are spaces that are partially only in virtual reality that maybe you need special hardware to even discover. Like for one story, I came up with a thing called "the cloudscape interface," which I described as a chrome spider that plugs into your head using temporal nodes. No, that's not a picture of it, but it's a fun picture I took in a bar.
但回到未来的城市。 人们是如何在空间中导航的？ 如果没有街道， 人们究竟如何搞清地理位置？ 我热衷于设想，在这个地方， 有部分空间仅存在于虚拟现实里， 你甚至需要特殊的硬件 才能发现它们。 比如说在一个故事里，我弄出了 一个叫做“云景界面”的东西， 我把它描述为一个用太阳穴接口 插入你的脑袋的电镀蜘蛛。 不，不是这张图，这只是 我在某个酒吧里拍的有趣的照片。
08:14
(Laughter)
（笑声）
08:16
And I got really carried away imagining the bars, restaurants, cafés that you could only find your way inside if you had the correct augmented reality hardware.
我会难以自拔地想象， 只有配备了正确的 增强现实（AR）设备 才能光顾的酒吧、餐厅、咖啡厅。
08:26
But again, second-order effects: in a world shaped by augmented reality, what kind of new communities will we have, what kind of new crimes that we haven't even thought of yet? OK, like, let's say that you and I are standing next to each other, and you think that we're in a noisy sports bar, and I think we're in a highbrow salon with a string quartet talking about Baudrillard. I can't possibly imagine what might go wrong in that scenario. Like, it's just -- I'm sure it'll be fine.
但其中同样存在着二阶效应： 在一个由增强现实塑造的世界里， 我们会有怎样的新型社区， 又会面临哪些未曾想象的 新型犯罪？ 比如说，你和我肩并肩站着， 你认为我们在一个 喧闹的体育酒吧里， 而我觉得我们在一个 高雅沙龙里，就着弦乐四重奏 谈论鲍德里亚。（法国社会学家， 其理论涉及模拟、拟像、超现实） 我无法想象在这个情境下 会出现什么问题。 我敢肯定一切都会迎刃而解。
08:58
And then there's social media. I can imagine some pretty frickin' dystopian scenarios where things like internet quizzes, dating apps, horoscopes, bots, all combine to drag you down deeper and deeper rabbit holes into bad relationships and worse politics. But then I think about the conversations that I've had with people who work on AI, and what I always hear from them is that the smarter AI gets, the better it is at making connections. So maybe the social media of the future will be better. Maybe it'll help us to form healthier, less destructive relationships. Maybe we'll have devices that enable togetherness and serendipity. I really hope so. And, you know, I like to think that if strong AI ever really exists, they'll probably enjoy our weird relationship drama the same way that you and I love to obsess about the "Real Housewives of Wherever."
然后还有社交媒体。 我能想象到一些 相当反乌托邦的情形， 网络心理测试、 约会应用、星座、聊天机器人 这些东西都结合在一起， 把你往糟糕的关系、更糟的政治 的泥沼里越拖越深。 但我又想起 和人工智能从业者的对话， 我总会听他们说， 人工智能变得越聪明， 它们就越会建立关系。 所以或许未来的社交媒体 会变得更好。 或许它能帮我们建立更健康、 破坏性更小的关系。 或许我们的设备能促进 团结与际遇。 我衷心希望如此。 我有时候会想， 如果真的存在强大的人工智能， 它们或许会享受 我们古怪的人际关系大戏， 就像你我热衷于 《真实主妇真人秀》一样。
09:58
And finally, there's medicine. I think a lot about how developments in genetic medicine could improve outcomes for people with cancer or dementia, and maybe one day, your hundredth birthday will be just another milestone on the way to another two or three decades of healthy, active life. Maybe the toilet of the future that I mentioned will improve health outcomes for a lot of people, including people in parts of the world where they don't have these complicated sewer systems that I mentioned. But also, as a transgender person, I like to think: What if we make advances in understanding the endocrine system that improve the options for trans people, the same way that hormones and surgeries expanded the options for the previous generation?
最后，还有医疗。 我常常会想， 遗传医学的发展 能如何改进癌症或 失智症患者的治疗结果， 或许有朝一日，你的百岁生日 只不过标志着还有二三十年的 健康、充满活力的生活在等着你。 或许我刚提到的未来的马桶 能改善很多人的健康， 包括在世界上某些 没有复杂下水道系统的地方 生活的人们。 另外，作为一名变性者， 我还乐意设想： 我们能否进一步理解内分泌系统， 从而改善变性群体的选择， 就像荷尔蒙和变性手术 拓宽了上一代的选择那样？
10:43
So finally: basically, I'm here to tell you, people talk about the future as though it's either going to be a technological wonderland or some kind of apocalyptic poop barbecue.
最后：其实，今天我想告诉各位的是， 人们谈论未来时， 仿佛未来要么是高科技仙境， 要么是让人不忍直视的世界末日。
10:56
(Laughter)
（笑声）
10:57
But the truth is, it's not going to be either of those things. It's going to be in the middle. It's going to be both. It's going to be everything. The one thing we do know is that the future is going to be incredibly weird. Just think about how weird the early 21st century would appear to someone from the early 20th.
但事实是，未来不会是 其中任何一种情况。 它会是两者的折衷，它会两者皆是， 它会是所有一切可能。 我们唯一知道的是， 未来会非常奇怪。 想想 21 世纪初期 对 20 世纪初期的人来说 会显得多么古怪。
11:13
And, you know, there's a kind of logical fallacy that we all have where we expect the future to be an extension of the present. Like, people in the 1980s thought that the Soviet Union would still be around today. But the future is going to be much weirder than we could possibly dream of. But we can try. And I know that there are going to be scary, scary things, but there's also going to be wonders and saving graces. And the first step to finding your way forward is to let your imagination run free.
而我们都有某种逻辑误区， 我们期望未来会是现在的延伸。 就像 1980 年代的人们 认为苏联会存续到今日。 但未来会比我们所能想象的 更为光怪陆离。 不过我们可以尝试。 我知道未来会有非常可怕的事情发生， 但也会有奇迹，会有慰藉。 而找到前进道路的第一步， 就是放飞你的想象力。
11:47
Thank you.
谢谢。
11:48
(Applause)
（掌声）
