Day 3 Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing

The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.

“Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

五问：

（1）“Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza”是事实， “Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）顾客的减少与滑板运动的流行一定有直接的因果关系吗？（你能否想出无因果关系或者因果关系倒置的情况？例如：广场内无人玩滑板，顾客就不会减少了吗？或者因为顾客减少了，来广场的人少了，所以有更大空间来玩滑板了，才导致滑板运动流行。）即便真的有因果关系，那它一定是唯一的原因吗？（你能否想出其他的原因？例如：广场的商品质量下降，服务水平降低等）一定是最重要的原因吗？

（3）乱丢垃圾和损坏公共财产的现象大幅增加与滑板运动者有关系吗？是唯一的原因吗？是最重要的原因吗？可能还有其他因素，例如，广场上的其他户外运动者或来购物的顾客。

（4）禁止玩滑板的坏处是什么？是否可能导致顾客更少？也许有些人是因为广场可以玩滑板才顺便来这购物的呢？

（5）即便一切都如建议者所愿，是否可能有其他原因导致这个广场难以恢复原有的繁华程度？你能罗列一两个原因吗？例如：广场设施陈旧，无法进行正常商业活动；市民素质较低，商场保安人员又不足；由于经济衰退，人们本身就不太愿意消费；或者商场之间竞争激烈，导致该商场购物人数下降等。