Day 11 The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure

The council of Maple County, concerned about the county's becoming overdeveloped, is debating a proposed measure that would prevent the development of existing farmland in the county. But the council is also concerned that such a restriction, by limiting the supply of new housing, could lead to significant increases in the price of housing in the county. Proponents of the measure note that Chestnut County established a similar measure ten years ago, and its housing prices have increased only modestly since. However, opponents of the measure note that Pine County adopted restrictions on the development of new residential housing fifteen years ago, and its housing prices have since more than doubled. The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

五问：

（1）“The council currently predicts that the proposed measure, if passed, will result in a significant increase in housing prices in Maple County”是结论，其余部分是事实，值得反驳吗？

（2）本题是一个很有意思的双线对比题，即有两个类比对象。类比的关键是什么？这三个地区的其他特点是一模一样的吗？例如：房子数量、消费水平、人口基数等。如果不是，能否简单地拿来比较？

（3）The council of Maple County对新房供应量的限制力度会影响结果吗？将新房供应量限制到原本的 90%和10%，对房价的影响一样吗？原文是否给出了另外两个地区对新房供应量的限制力度？

（4）在作对比时，另外两个地区 Chestnut County和Pine County的时间点都不一致，这样对比是正确的吗？是否犯了时间轴论证错误？

（5）高房价增长一点儿与低房价翻一倍，哪种后果更加严重？这样对比说明了什么问题？没有基数的对比是无意义的。而且，房价上涨一定是由于对新房供应量的限制吗？是否还有其他因素可能影响房价？例如，通货膨胀也会导致房价上涨。