Day 13 In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County last year lowered its speed limit from 55 to 45 miles per hour on all county highways

In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County last year lowered its speed limit from 55 to 45 miles per hour on all county highways. But this effort has failed: the number of accidents has not decreased, and, based on reports by the highway patrol, many drivers are exceeding the speed limit. Prunty County should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths, resurfacing rough highways, and improving visibility at dangerous intersections. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

五问：

（1）“Prunty County should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths, resurfacing rough highways, and improving visibility at dangerous intersections”是结论，其余部分是事实，需要反驳吗？

（2）本题是一道对比类的题目。我们应当问自己的第一个问题是：这两个地区可以用于比较吗？ Butler County通过改善道路设施减少了交通事故的发生，那么 Prunty County可以通过采取同样的措施达到同样的目的吗？除了各自的高速路安全政策不同之外，两个地区的其他条件全都是一模一样的吗？如果不是，哪些条件会影响各自道路交通的安全情况？会得出怎样不同的结论？例如：车辆数量多、市民遵守交通规则的意识差等都可能导致交通事故的发生。

（3）Prunty County事故数量没有下降的原因有哪些？一定是因为司机超速吗？你能否想出其他原因？比如：酒驾、行人违反交通规则等。限速令实行短短一年的效果能代表这个政策的实际最终效果吗？有说服力吗？

（4）本题中提供了高速公路巡逻队的事故报告。巡逻队所看到的情况，一定能够代表所有情况吗？他们是否更有可能只看到某种特殊情况，并因此有失公正？ Butler County所采取的措施是五年前的措施；五年前的特点跟现在的一定是一样的吗？适合五年前的特点，一定适合现在吗？ Butler County在五年前采取的措施，为何到去年才产生效果？是否犯了时间轴论证错误？措施和效果之间的因果关系唯一吗？ Butler County是否可能还采取了其他措施，从而减少了事故？例如：加大全民交通安全教育，完善交通安全管理和监督机制，提高车辆质量等。

（5）数字与百分比能够直接等价吗？在没有绝对事故数的前提下， Butler County的事故率下降了 25%能说明问题吗？如果交通流量减少了，那 25%的事故下降率具有实际意义吗？