Day 19 Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast

Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast; since that time, its share of the radio audience in the Rockville listening area has increased significantly. Given WCQP's recent success with call-in advice programming, and citing a nationwide survey indicating that many radio listeners are quite interested in such programs, the station manager of KICK in Medway recommends that KICK include more call-in advice programs in an attempt to gain a larger audience share in its listening area.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

五问：

（1）“Two years ago, radio station WCQP in Rockville decided to increase the number of call-in advice programs that it broadcast; since that time, its share of the radio audience in the Rockville listening area has increased significantly”和“a nationwide survey indicating that many radio listeners are quite interested in such programs”是事实， “the station manager of KICK in Medway recommends that KICK include more call-in advice programs in an attempt to gain a larger audience share in its listening area”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）当我们将两个事物（本题为两个不同地区的电台）进行类比时，是否应该辨认两者之间可能不同的特质有哪些？例如：两个地区的听众的喜好是否一样。这些特质是否能够直接用于类比？电话咨询节目在 Rockville受欢迎，就表明它也适用于 Medway吗？如果 Medway的听众恰好讨厌电话咨询节目呢？

（3）调查研究是可信的吗？一个全国性的调查研究能够用于本地的电台决策吗？当地的习俗是否可能导致听众习惯与其他地方不同？这是一个典型的由整体特征简单地推导出部分特征的逻辑错误。

（4）两年前的策略现在还适用吗？是否有可能电话咨询节目现在已经被新的流行取代了呢？

（5）我们能否简单地认为，WCQP电台的听众增长一定是因为某种策略吗？一定只因为某种策略吗？最重要的原因一定是某种策略吗？有没有可能是因为该电台加大了宣传力度，或者换了一些更优秀的主持人？