Day 43 Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years

The following appeared in a memorandum written by the chairperson of the West Egg Town Council.

“Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, the town's residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of recycled material— which includes paper, plastic, and metal— should further increase, since charges for pickup of other household garbage will double. Furthermore, over 90 percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our town's strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

五问：

（1）“Two years ago, consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, the town's residents have been recycling twice as much material as they did in previous years”和“Furthermore, over 90 percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future”是事实，“the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）两年前的预测是基于哪些要素进行的？当时是否可能已经考虑到了回收率的提升等诸多要素？

（3）我们应该思考，回收率在过去两年提升了，就一定会在随后几年中延续下去吗？过去和现在未必一致，现在与将来也不一定一致：时间轴论证是我们最应该关注的错误论证方法之一。

（4）可回收利用的垃圾（如纸、塑料、金属）占垃圾总量的比例是多少呢？不可回收利用的垃圾（如厨余垃圾）有没有可能更多呢？另外，提高收取垃圾的费用，就意味着回收率一定会提高吗？你能想出其他情形吗？例如：通过焚烧、堆肥等方式处理垃圾，这样回收率也不一定会提高。

（5）调查过程中 90%的居民说会更多地进行垃圾回收，就意味着他们一定会这样做吗？剩下 10%的居民呢？另外，居民处理垃圾的习惯是影响垃圾填埋场使用率的唯一因素吗？你能想出其他因素吗？例如：当地居民的人口数量增长导致垃圾增多也是一个影响因素。