Day 55 Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend isabout to be reversed

The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

“Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people ten to twenty-.ve years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

五问：

（1）“Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years”和“The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people ten to twenty-.ve years old, the age-group most likely to play video games”是事实，“a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）本题属于由调查得出结论类题目。请大家回顾理论部分：一项调查的有效性是由哪些因素决定的？这些因素在本题中都分别交代了吗？何种程度的交代才能使本文的论述显得有价值？

（3）游戏销量连续两年下滑，靠引入新游戏和大量投放广告就一定能解决问题吗？销量下滑是否还有其他原因？例如：定价过高、分销策略不科学等。

（4）文中是否交代了最新电脑与游戏销售之间的关系？你认为何种程度的交代才能加强原文的论述？比如，游戏玩家只有买了最新的电脑，才能玩这些新游戏。另外，喜欢玩游戏的人就一定喜欢玩 Whirlwind 引进的游戏吗？原文中是否给出了这些游戏的目标人群？个体特点是否可能与集体的不一致？目标群体是 10～25岁的青少年，但并不是每一个 10～25岁的青少年都喜欢玩游戏或玩 Whirlwind的游戏，或许价格对他们来说太贵，或者其他公司的游戏更吸引他们。

（5）广告投放一定能产生效果吗？哪些因素可能会影响广告的效果？密集程度显然是影响广告效果的因素之一，你能否说说其他的因素可能会如何影响其投放效果？例如：广告代言人知名度小，广告设计不吸引人等都会影响广告的效果。即便玩 Whirlwind游戏的人数会增长，一定会在接下来几个月内大幅度增长吗？