Day 71 Traffic here in Waymarsh is becoming a problem

The following is a letter to the editor of the Waymarsh Times.

“Traffic here in Waymarsh is becoming a problem. Although just three years ago a state traffic survey showed that the typical driving commuter took 20 minutes to get to work, the commute now takes closer to 40 minutes, according to the survey just completed. Members of the town council already have suggested more road building to address the problem, but as well as being expensive, the new construction will surely disrupt some of our residential neighborhoods. It would be better to follow the example of the nearby city of Garville. Last year Garville implemented a policy that rewards people who share rides to work, giving them coupons for free gas. Pollution levels in Garville have dropped since the policy was implemented, and people from Garville tell me that commuting times have fallen considerably. There is no reason why a policy like Garville's shouldn't work equally well in Waymarsh.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

五问：

（1）“Traffic here in Waymarsh is becoming a problem. Although just three years ago a state traffic survey showed that the typical driving commuter took 20 minutes to get to work, the commute now takes closer to 40 minutes, according to the survey just completed”和“Last year Garville implemented a policy that rewards people who share rides to work, giving them coupons for free gas. Pollution levels in Garville have dropped since the policy was implemented, and people from Garville tell me that commuting times have fallen considerably”是事实， “It would be better to follow the example of the nearby city of Garville”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）本文属于典型的类比式论证，请同学们回顾一下：什么样的类比论证才是可行的？对比对象之间需要达成什么样的条件？原文在论述 Waymarsh与Garville时，应该分别提供哪些信息才能促使类比成立？比如两地的人口密度、车辆拥有量、道路上的车辆构成（即上班族的车占总车流量的比例）一致。原文是否提供了这些信息？并没有。

（3）在论述 Waymarsh的交通问题时，原文提到了两个调查，请大家仔细分析一下：三年前的调查和现在的调查是否可以进行对比呢？情况和条件一致吗？调查的目标人群是一样的吗？居住地和上班地点的距离是一样的吗？通勤时间变长了一定是因为交通问题吗？有没有可能是工作地点或居住地点改变了，或者是道路施工导致拥堵？

（4）一项费用高昂的、可能会影响居民生活的政策就一定是不好的吗？是否执行一项政策，需要考虑哪些方面？除了上述两方面之外，其他方面是否也应该被考虑到呢？比如：这项政策是否能够产生长远的影响？是否可能一劳永逸地解决眼下的问题？

（5）Garville的污染等级下降一定是因为该项政策的实施吗？是否可能有其他原因？例如：对环境污染的治理加强，经济产业的转型等。另外，奖励免费油票是否可能会吸引那些原本骑自行车上班的人，从而导致开车的人更多了？收入水平的不同会不会使人们对待免费油票的态度也不同？