China could face a protectionist backlash next year because of a huge over- expansion of industrial capacity in recent months that may lead to a surge in cheap exports, a European business group said yesterday.

一个欧洲商业组织昨日表示，中国最近数月工业产能大量过度扩张，或将导致廉价出口商品猛增，这可能使中国明年面对贸易保护主义反弹。

The government's massive stimulus measures to revive the economy have exacerbated the already serious problem of manufacturing overcapacity, the European Chamber of Commerce in China said in a report. Industries such as steel, cement and plastics were still “blindly expanding”, it said.

中国欧盟商会(European Chamber of Commerce in China)在一份报告中表示，中国政府的大规模经济刺激措施加剧了本已严重的制造业产能过剩问题。报告称，钢铁、水泥和塑料等行业仍在“盲目扩张”。

“By the second half of 2010, there will be far more dumping cases against China for unfair trading,” said Joerg Wuttke, chamber president. China's over- capacity was putting “political pressure on our leaders . . . We are really concerned about protectionism”.

“到2010年下半年，以不公平贸易为由针对中国的倾销案将明显增多，”中国欧盟商会主席约尔格•伍特克(Joerg Wuttke)表示。中国产能过剩问题正给“我们的领导人带来政治压力……我们确实担心保护主义”。

A growing number of trade measures have been aimed at Chinese goods in recent months, including a decision by the US to place duties on China-made tyres and steel pipes.

近几月来，针对中国商品的贸易保护措施不断增多，如美国对中国制造的轮胎和钢管加征关税。

The chamber's report echoes recent official statements about the risks from the bank-led surge in investment this year. Last month, the State Council, China's cabinet, announced it was taking steps to limit capacity increases in seven sectors amid fears that over-investment would generate non-performing loans and hamper recovery.

中国欧盟商会的报告，与近期中国官方的声明相呼应，声明谈到了今年银行牵头的投资猛增可能造成的风险。上月，中国国务院宣布，将采取措施限制七个行业的产能增长，这是担心过度投资可能造成不良贷款，并阻碍经济复苏。

Although the primary focus of the stimulus has been infrastructure, the spill-over effect has been continued expansion in steel, aluminium, cement and chemicals. The wind-power equipment and oil- refining sectors were also facing over-capacity, the European chamber said.

尽管经济刺激方案的重点一直是基础设施，但溢出效应导致钢铁、铝、水泥和化工等领域产能持续扩张。中国欧盟商会表示，风电设备和炼油行业同样面临着产能过剩问题。

Mr Wuttke estimated overcapacity in China's steel sector at 100m to 200m tonnes, or 15-30 per cent of total capacity. Much stemmed from some 150m tonnes of illegal or unauthorised capacity, equivalent to the steel industries of Japan and South Korea combined.

伍特克估计，中国钢铁行业的过剩产能介于1亿至2亿吨之间，占总产能的15%-30%。非法或未经批准的产能约为1.5亿吨，相当于日本和韩国的钢铁产能之和，是过剩产能的一大来源。

Yu Yongding, one of China's leading economists, has raised similar concerns. In a speech this week, he said there was evidence of waste in some of the spending and warned China could face “very large inflation pressure in the future”.

中国知名经济学家余永定表达了同样的担忧。他在本周发表的一次演讲中表示，部分开支存在浪费现象。他警告，中国未来可能面临“很大的通胀压力”。

译者/何黎