杰米•戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)将比特币(bitcoin)称为一场“骗局”，并宣称如果他手下有哪个交易员买卖这种加密货币，就会被解雇，因为太蠢。鉴于他掌管着摩根大通(JPMorgan Chase)，而这家公司挣钱靠的就是让传统货币流转，有人或许会怀疑戴蒙是在“为自己站台”。是这样吗?
Financial authorities increasingly agree with him. China has banned companies from issuing their own token currencies, and is considering proscribing cryptocurrency exchanges. On Tuesday, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority issued a terse warning on initial coin offerings, which followed a similar comment from Hong Kong’s market regulator.
金融监管机构的观点日益与他一致。中国已经禁止企业发行代币，也正在考虑禁止加密货币交易所。英国金融市场行为监管局(Financial Conduct Authority)周二对“首次代币发行”(initial coin offerings，简称ICO)发出简短警告，更早之前，香港的市场监管机构也发表了类似言论。
Mr Dimon is clearly correct in one sense: there is an irrational speculative bubble in cryptocurrency prices. The value of the best-known digital currency, bitcoin, has risen eightfold in the past year. A lesser known currency, Ripple, saw its notional value increase from $500m at the start of the year to $35bn, before plunging to $19bn.
从某种意义上说，戴蒙显然是正确的：加密货币的价格已经出现了非理性的投机泡沫。其中最著名的比特币在过去一年涨了8倍。知名度稍逊的Ripple的名义价值从今年年初的5亿美元上升到350亿美元，随后猛跌至190亿美元。
Comparisons with Dutch tulip bulbs are obligatory wherever speculation takes hold. In the case of cryptocurrency, though, the parallels are eerie. Bitcoin started off as a coders’ hobby in 2008. The modern equivalent of the tulip trading “colleges” are online forums. The underlying logic of both is that a greater fool will always be ready to pay a higher price. As in any case where price is completely separate from intrinsic value, the supply of fools must eventually be exhausted.
只要投机大行其道，人们就会拿荷兰郁金香球茎作比较。不过，就加密货币来说，这两者的相似之处令人悚然。2008年比特币刚问世时只是程序员圈子中的一种爱好。现代的网络论坛，就相当于以前的郁金香交易“协会”(colldges)。两者的基本逻辑都是：总有更傻的人准备付更高的价格。每当价格完全脱离内在价值时，最终傻瓜必然就不够了。
The speculation draws additional support from the new trend of ICOs. Start-ups are issuing “tokens” — a sort of substitute for a share in an initial public offering — in exchange for cryptocurrencies like bitcoin. The start-ups then exchange the bitcoins for money to fund operations. In some cases, the tokens are intended to increase in value along with the business. More than $1.8bn has been raised in ICOs.
ICO热潮的出现进一步助长了投机。初创企业纷纷发行“代币”——类似于股票的首次公开发行——交换比特币之类的加密货币。随后，这些初创企业将比特币兑换成法币，用于经营。有时候，这些代币会随着企业业务的发展而增值。到目前为止，ICO募资金额已经超过了18亿美元。
Unlike traditional securities, which must face regulatory scrutiny and offer financial disclosures, any coder can write a “white paper” and start a new currency or issue a token. If a traditional company goes bust, investors and creditors are entitled to recoup what they can from the remaining assets. Its hard to tell if ICO tokens represent a real claim to anything at all. They scream out for abuse.
和必须接受监管审查并披露公司财务信息的传统证券不同，任何程序员都可以编写“白皮书”，发起一种新的货币或发行一种代币。如果一家传统企业破产，投资者和债权人有权从剩余资产中获得补偿。而ICO所发行的代币是否代表着真正的索赔权却很难说，这就必然造成滥用。
The growing interest in these instruments may, in some part, reflect pressures in the larger financial world. Investors are starved for yield. There are fewer equity securities to buy (due to buybacks and private equity) and those that remain look expensive. Gambling on ICOs, in other words, may be a byproduct of years of low rates, ample provision of liquidity by central banks, and de-equitisation.
人们对代币的兴趣日渐增长，一定程度上或许反映了更广泛金融领域中的压力。投资者渴望获利。能买的权益性证券越来越少(由于回购和私募)，剩下的又很贵。换句话说，ICO领域的赌博现象，或许是多年的低利率、市场上由央行提供的充裕流动性、以及“去股权化”趋势共同催生的副产品。
Whether open-source digital currencies, in the absence of hysteria, could be a useful alternative to government-issued money is a hard question. But the underlying technology of distributed ledgers or blockchains has promise in non-monetary contexts. Last month, six of the world’s largest banks joined a project to use blockchain technology to speed up trade settlements, freeing up the capital that the old settlement system requires. Blockchain could also help tidy up discrepancies in shareholder registers, which have led to lawsuits.
在市场没有狂热的情况下，开源数字货币会不会成为政府发行货币的一种实用的替代品还很难断言。但基础的分布式总账或区块链技术在非货币场景下却很有潜力。上个月，全球六大银行联合发起了一个项目，将使用区块链技术加快交易结算，这将可释放出旧的结算系统所要求存放的资金。区块链技术还有助于整理股东名册上的不一致之处，这种差异引起过法律诉讼。
Mr Dimon is right: fools are gambling in cryptocurrencies, and more fools will be taken in by bad ICOs. That, however, leaves open the possibility that the underlying technology could prove useful, and could come within the global regulatory framework. In finance, innovation and speculative hysteria often appear side by side.
戴蒙是对的：傻瓜们正在加密货币上赌博，而且还会有更多的傻瓜被不良ICO蒙骗。然而，这也意味着存在这样的可能性：基础区块链技术可能被证明是有用的，并可能纳入全球监管框架。在金融领域，创新和投机性的狂热往往一同出现。
