唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)准备在本周就下一任美联储(Federal Reserve)主席人选作出宣布，政府官员们称，在这一难以预料的甄选过程中，美联储理事杰伊•鲍威尔(Jay Powell)是领先人选。
The US president teased the decision on Instagram on Friday, claiming that Americans were “anxiously” awaiting his announcement and that everybody would be “very impressed” with the nominee. “It will be a person who hopefully will do a fantastic job,” he said, speaking directly into the camera from the White House.
美国总统上周五在Instagram上拿这项决定开玩笑，称美国民众正“焦急地”等待他的宣布，而且人人都会对这位被提名者“印象深刻”。“这将是个有希望干一番大事的人，”特朗普在白宫直接对摄像机说。
Mr Trump has been deliberating between Mr Powell, the continuity candidate for the job alongside current chair Janet Yellen, and John Taylor, a Stanford economist who could radically shake up monetary policy. Mr Powell, who has served at the central bank since 2012, is a centrist who has strongly supported Ms Yellen’s cautious approach to interest rate rises as well as the gradual reduction of its $4.5tn asset holdings which began this month.
特朗普一直在鲍威尔、美联储现任主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen，她与鲍威尔同属沿袭现有路线的人选)、以及可能从根本上改变货币政策的斯坦福大学(Stanford)经济学家约翰•泰勒(John Taylor)中考虑下任美联储主席的人选。自2012年以来任职于美国央行的鲍威尔属于中间派，他一直大力支持耶伦对于加息及从本月开始逐步削减美联储持有的4.5万亿美元资产的谨慎态度。
If he wins the job, which is subject to Senate confirmation, Mr Powell is likely to be welcomed by financial markets which have soared in the easy-money environment fostered by the Fed since the crisis.
如果鲍威尔获得任命(需参议院确认)，可能会受到金融市场的欢迎。金融危机以来，在美联储培育的银根放松的环境下，金融市场一路飙升。
On the other hand, Mr Taylor, a prominent US economist who authored a key policy rule for setting rates, has been consistently hawkish on monetary policy and critical of the Fed’s stimulus programmes, which would make investors more wary.
另一方面，泰勒是一位杰出的美国经济学家，曾写下设定利率的一个关键政策规则，他一直在货币政策上持鹰派观点并批评美联储的刺激方案，这种态度会引起投资者更大的戒备心。
As with the decisions over the composition of his cabinet and the Supreme Court, Mr Trump has drawn on his reality-television roots as he turns the race to be Fed chair into a public spectacle. The lead-up to the decision on the Fed’s leadership has been like no other, as different candidates’ prospects have waxed and waned in media predictions and administration insiders have stoked up speculation.
与其有关内阁和最高法院组成的决定一样，特朗普利用他真人秀的根基，将美联储主席的选拔变成了一场公开表演。美联储主席任命的前奏很是与众不同，不同候选人的前景在媒体的预测中起起伏伏，政府内部人士也大加炒作。
The president has appeared to relish the drama: this month he stunned some lawmakers by reportedly taking a straw poll in a meeting with Republican senators, presenting a choice between Mr Powell and Mr Taylor.
特朗普似乎很享受这种戏剧场面：据说本月他在会见一些共和党参议员时做了次民意测验，让他们在鲍威尔和泰勒之间作出选择，这让议员们大吃一惊。
Declining to give Ms Yellen a second term would be a break from established presidential practice in recent decades. Yet while Mr Trump appears to see benefits in reappointing Ms Yellen, given the economy’s strong performance and the record-high levels of the stock market, he has also expressed a desire to make his own personal mark on the institution.
如果拒绝让耶伦连任，将打破近几十年来的既定总统惯例。然而，特朗普虽然看到了再次任命耶伦的种种好处，比如经济的强劲表现和股市创下的历史新高，他还是表示出希望在美联储留下自己的印记。
Mr Trump has interviewed Messrs Taylor and Powell, and Ms Yellen for the job. Also under consideration has been Kevin Warsh, a Stanford academic who like Mr Taylor would represent a sharp break from the current regime. Gary Cohn, the director of the president’s National Economic Council, saw his prospects for the job diminish after he criticised Mr Trump’s response to the Charlottesville protests.
特朗普已就美联储主席一职的任命与泰勒、鲍威尔和耶伦面谈。斯坦福学者凯文•沃什(Kevin Warsh)也在考虑之中，沃什和泰勒相似，将代表着与当前体制的分道扬镳。在沃什批评特朗普对夏洛茨威尔(Charlottesville)游行事件做出的反应后，白宫国家经济委员会(National Economic Council)主席加里•科恩(Gary Cohn)认为沃什出任美联储主席的前景堪忧。
Choosing a continuity candidate like Mr Powell would be in keeping with the Trump administration’s unexpectedly delicate handling of the Fed since the president’s inauguration.
选择像鲍威尔这样沿袭现有路线的候选人，将符合特朗普政府自总统就职以来出人意料地小心处理美联储事务的做法。
While Mr Trump regularly lambasted Ms Yellen during the election campaign, he has subsequently spurned any criticism of her or her institution, saying he really likes the chair. This reflects an awareness of the market sensitivity of any remarks associated with the world’s most powerful central bank. Mr Trump and his lieutenants have closely associated themselves with the soaring value of the stock market since he took over the White House.
尽管特朗普在竞选期间常炮轰耶伦，但之后他拒绝对耶伦或美联储做出任何批评，称他真的喜欢耶伦。这反映出，特朗普意识到市场对与世界最强大央行有关的任何评论都很敏感。特朗普和他的助手们自特朗普执掌白宫以来一直表示支持股市市值不断飙升。
Mr Powell is a well-known figure among bankers and investors, having worked as a partner at Carlyle Group from 1997 to 2005 following a stint at the US Treasury under George H.W. Bush. He is not an economist, in a break from several decades of precedent at the Fed. Both Ms Yellen and her predecessor Ben Bernanke had high-profile careers in academic economics.
鲍威尔在银行家和投资者中是一位知名人物，他曾在老布什(George H.W. Bush)当政期间供职于美国财政部，之后于1997年到2005年在凯雷(Carlyle)任合伙人。鲍威尔并非经济学家，若他获任，这将打破美联储前几十年的传统。耶伦及其前任本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)在经济学学术领域都曾有杰出的职业生涯。
Mr Powell has been supportive of Ms Yellen’s arguments that the Fed is unlikely to be in a position to lift rates very far given slower potential growth and low inflation. Recently he has steeped himself in markets plumbing at the Fed, including examinations of liquidity shortages in treasuries trading.
鲍威尔支持耶伦关于美联储加息的主张。耶伦认为，因为潜在增长放缓和低通胀，美联储不太适合大幅抬高利率。最近鲍威尔在美联储潜心做市场研究，包括考察美国国债交易中的流动性短缺问题。
The administration would be counting on him to be more willing to ease regulatory burdens on the financial sector than Ms Yellen, who was closely allied with regulatory hardliner and former governor Daniel Tarullo. Nevertheless, some Republican lawmakers have been critical of Mr Powell for not doing more to curb regulation as a Fed governor.
特朗普政府将会期望鲍威尔比耶伦更愿意减轻金融业的监管负担。耶伦与监管强硬派、前美联储理事丹尼尔•塔鲁洛(Daniel Tarullo)是亲密盟友。然而，一些共和党议员一直批评，身为美联储理事的鲍威尔没有为减少监管做出更多努力。
Mr Powell’s candidacy has been strongly backed by Treasury secretary Steven Mnuchin, whereas many conservative lawmakers on Capitol Hill have been backing Mr Taylor.
鲍威尔的候选资格得到了美国财长史蒂文•姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)的强烈支持，而国会山的很多保守派议员则支持泰勒。
The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
白宫没有立即回应置评请求。
Additional reporting by Demetri Sevastopulo 迪米(Demetri Sevastopulo)补充报道
