一项备受关注的对基金经理进行的调查显示，投资者对全球股市的乐观情绪正推动资金从债券流向股票，尤其是周期性板块的股票。
With many equity markets registering all-time and cyclical peaks already this year, optimism over stronger economic growth and expectations of rising inflation has in recent weeks pushed up bond yields.
许多股市今年已经达到历史或周期高点，与此同时对更强劲经济增长的乐观情绪以及对通胀上扬的预期在近几周推高了债券收益率。
Bank of America Merrill Lynch on Tuesday, in its latest monthly summary of market positioning, noted that allocation to equities has climbed to a two-year high, while money devoted to bonds has fallen to a four-year low. “Investors are the most overweight equities relative to government bonds since August 2014,’’ said the bank.
周二，美银美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch)在其最新月度市场头寸总结中指出，对股票的配置已攀升至两年高点，而投入债券的资金跌至四年低点。该行表示：“相对于政府债券，现在是投资者自2014年8月以来持有股票最多的时候。”
Investors’ near-term expectations for stocks are strongly positive. The net proportion of fund managers saying they had taken out protection against a sharp fall in equities in the next three months has eased to its lowest level since 2013.
投资者对股市的短期预期非常积极。已采取措施防范未来3个月股市暴跌的基金经理的净比例，已降至2013年以来的最低水平。
The majority of investors now do not expect equity markets to peak until 2019 or later, a notable recent extension of their timescale forecasts; last month the majority of those surveyed by BofA said they anticipated the top to come in the second quarter of this year.
如今，多数投资者都预计股市将在2019年或之后才会见顶，这说明他们最近延伸了对牛市持续时间的预测;上月，美银美林调查的大多数受访者表示，他们预计股市最高点将于今年第二季度到来。
“Investors continue to favour equities,” said Michael Hartnett, BofA’s chief investment strategist. “By the end of Q1, we expect peak positioning to combine with peak profits and policy to create a spike in volatility.”
“投资者继续青睐股票，”美银美林首席投资策略师迈克尔•哈特尼特(Michael Hartnett)表示，“到第一季度结束时，我们预计峰值头寸将与峰值利润和政策相结合，导致波动性飙升。”
Global investors said they preferred the eurozone, emerging markets and Japan as overweight regions in their portfolios. The UK continued to be deeply out of consensus, falling once more to a record low since 2001, said BofA.
全球投资者表示，他们青睐欧元区、新兴市场和日本作为投资组合中的高配地区。美银表示，基金经理对英国仍不能形成共识，对英国股票的配置跌至2001年以来的新低。
Amid this optimism about global stocks, investors’ expectations for corporate performance are also rising. The net share of investors saying global corporate earnings will rise 10 per cent or more over the next year comes in at the highest level since 2011, and 57 per cent of investors would like to see companies increase their capital spending.
在这波对全球股市的乐观情绪中，投资者对公司业绩的预期也在上升。预计未来一年全球企业利润将增长10%或更多的投资者的净比例，达到了2011年以来的最高水平，而57%的投资者希望看到企业增加资本支出。
Investors are buying into tech, industrials and emerging markets, and shifting out of defensive stocks such as telecoms and utilities, BofA found. Selling volatility has become the most crowded trade for the first time, eclipsing owning leading US and China tech stocks — known as FAANGs and BATs — and holding bitcoin.
美银美林发现，投资者正买入科技、工业板块和新兴市场，撤出电信和公用事业等防御型股票。出售波动性首次成为最拥挤的交易，超过了持有美国和中国的主要科技股——分别为FAANG和BAT——以及持有比特币。
Inflation and a crash in global bond markets topped investors’ list of tail risks; the second most popular risk scenario was a policy mistake by the Federal Reserve or European Central Bank.
通胀及全球债券市场崩盘高居投资者尾部风险清单之首，排在第二位的风险场景是美联储(Fed)或欧洲央行(ECB)政策失误。
Average cash balances are at 4.4 per cent, slightly below the 10-year average of 4.5 per cent and well above BofA’s 3.5 per cent “sell” signal.
平均现金余额为4.4%，略低于4.5%的十年平均水平，远高于美银美林3.5%的“卖出”信号。
Two-thirds of the 183 respondents to BofA’s survey were global investors, with the remaining third being regional specialists. Two-thirds were institutional funds, and in total they manage $526bn of assets. Their weighted average investment time horizon was 7.8 months, a measure that has been slightly lengthening in recent months.
美银美林调查的183位受访者中，三分之二是全球投资者，其余三分之一是地区专家。三分之二是机构基金，总共管理5260亿美元的资产。其加权平均投资期为7.8个月，这个数字在最近几个月略有延长。
