Passage 3 Signs of Recession: The Impact on Britain’s Real Economy 092
金融危机对英国实体经济的影响 《卫报》

[00:00]Signs of recession: the impact on Britain's real economy
[00:07]The International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week predicted
[00:12]that the British economy would sink into a recession next year
[00:16]as it reduced its growth forecast for the period from 1.7% to -0.1%.
[00:25]Already there are signs that the real economy
[00:28]is beginning to feel the effects of the financial crisis.
[00:33]Companies
[00:34]British companies are struggling to keep their heads above the water
[00:39]in the midst of the credit crisis.
[00:41]Ernst & Young yesterday said that there were 111 profit warnings
[00:47]from quoted companies in the three months (i.e. July, August and September)
[00:54]to 30 September. This is the highest figure recorded in the same period
[01:00]and almost one third more profit warnings
[01:04]than the same period in 2007 last year. Keith McGregor,
[01:09]restructuring partner at Ernst & Young,
[01:12]said: "UK profit warnings continued to come thick and fast
[01:18]during the third quarter, crossing over the 100 mark once again.
[01:23]It is deeply concerning to think
[01:25]that the worst is almost certainly yet to come for UK corporates."
[01:31]Deloitte, the consultancy, said that finance directors' optimism
[01:36]about the outlook for their companies
[01:38]has deteriorated over the last few months. Margaret Ewing,
[01:44]Deloitte partner and vice-chairman, said:
[01:47]"CFOs are preparing for a more prolonged period of distress in credit markets
[01:52]than they had earlier expected,
[01:54]with cost cutting and cash preservation coming to the fore.
[01:59]There is also a growing readiness to contemplate more radical options
[02:05]such as dividend cuts, a reflection of the growing intensity of the slowdown."
[02:11]Unemployment
[02:13]David Blanchflower, a member of the Bank of England monetary policy committee
[02:19]which sets interest rates, predicted 2 million people in total
[02:24]were likely to be unemployed by the end of the year.
[02:28]Since Lehman Brothers collapsed last month,
[02:31]many leading companies have been cutting jobs.
[02:34]ITV, the embattled TV company has announced 1,000 jobs cuts.
[02:40]HSBC is reducing its workforce by 1,100 in spite of weathering
[02:46]the credit crisis better than some rivals such as UBS
[02:50]where job cuts are also running at 1,000. GSK, the pharmaceuticals company,
[02:57]reduced its workforce by 400.
[03:01]The Office for National Statistics will release data on unemployment
[03:05]on Wednesday. Forecasts suggest that the figures will show a rise
[03:10]in the claimant count of 35,000 to 940,000,
[03:16]but the latest events will not feed through into the data for about six months.
[03:22]Geoff Hoon, the transport secretary, has warned that there were
[03:26]"potentially serious consequences for small business, for employment"
[03:31]from the current crisis.
[03:33] Repossessions
[03:36] The number of homeowners in England and Wales
[03:39]facing repossession soared to a 16-year high in the summer
[03:43]and this is going to get much worse.
[03:46]Homelessness Charity Shelter predicted last week that there
[03:49]will be around 45,000 repossessions this year,
[03:53]with one in 150 homeowners already three months
[03:57]or more behind on their mortgage repayments.
[04:00]The ministry of justice said that the number of court orders
[04:05]for mortgage repossessions rose to 28,568 in the three months
[04:13]to the end of June. That is, 24% more than in the same period a year ago
[04:19]and the highest since the third quarter of 1992, when 30,587 orders were made.
[04:28]The Lib Dem treasury spokesman, Vince Cable, said:
[04:33]"With more and more people slipping into negative equity
[04:36]and unable to meet mortgage repayments,
[04:39]the government must act to ensure we do not see the mass repossessions
[04:44]which occurred during the last Tory recession."
[04:48]Mortgages
[04:50]Mortgage lending fell by 95% last month as the lack of bank financing
[04:56]made it increasingly difficult for first-time buyers
[05:00]to step onto the property ladder.
[05:03]According to the Bank of England,
[05:05]net mortgage lending fell to 143 million in August.
[05:12]This was less than 5% of the 3 billion of net lending in July
[05:18]and the lowest level since records began in 1993.
[05:23]The number of mortgages approved for house purchases fell
[05:27]by 70% in the year 2008 to August to stand at just 32,000
[05:34]and the number of people remortgaging also fell,
[05:38]dropping to 64,000 in August from an average of 88,000
[05:43]in the previous six months.
[05:45]As a result of tighter lending conditions,
[05:48]the government said the number of houses being sold in Britain
[05:52]fell to its lowest level since 1959 in August.
[05:57] Consumer credit
[05:59]Consumers will be squeezed further over the next few months
[06:03]as banks and building societies cut back on the amount of credit on offer.
[06:09]The Bank of England's latest credit conditions survey reported
[06:13]that unsecured loans on offer to households hit a new low.
[06:19] A balance of 27.5% of lenders offered fewer unsecured loans to households
[06:26]in the third quarter, the lowest level since the series began.
[06:30]"It's only going to get worse from here," said Paul Dales at Capital Economics.
[06:36]He added: "Perhaps the worst aspect is
[06:39]that this survey excludes the dramatic events of the last few weeks
[06:44]it was conducted from August 26 to September 17
[06:49]so credit conditions will probably tighten by even more than expected.
[06:54]Even if the problems in the financial markets
[06:57]were miraculously solved overnight, which is unlikely,
[07:01]the impact of the credit crisis on the real economy
[07:05]will be with us for some time."
[07:08] Pensions
[07:10]Billions of pounds have been wiped off British pension schemes
[07:14]since the start of the credit crisis last summer.
[07:18]Pension experts Hargreaves Lansdown estimated that the system
[07:23]has lost 250 billion and is now worth about 1,000 billion.
[07:31]People who have a final salary pension scheme will not lose any money
[07:36]as long as their company does not go bankrupt.
[07:40]However, people in defined contribution schemes
[07:43]and those with personal pension schemes will see the value of their savings
[07:50]hit by the sharp fall
[07:51]in the Financial Times Stock Exchange 100 share index（FTSE 100）.