Passage 7 Job Creation Made Hard
就业市场形势好转 《新闻周刊》

[00:01]You'd have to be mighty isolated not to know someone who has been lost his job,
[00:08]and has been forced into early retirement, or forced back to work
[00:13]and unable to find a job. Unemployment of 10.2 percent
[00:20]is still below the post-World War II peak of 10.8 percent of late 1982 but,
[00:30]by other measures, the job market hasn't been this bad
[00:34]since the Great Depression.
[00:37]More than a third of those out of work have been without a job
[00:42]for longer than six months, a postwar record. Counting those
[00:47]who involuntarily have only part-time work and those
[00:52]who would like a job but have stopped looking,
[00:56]the "underemployment" rate is 17.5 percent, another postwar peak.
[01:05]The White House jobs "summit" Thursday will try to revive employment growth,
[01:12]but it will be a hard strike.
[01:16]Job creation is fundamentally a private-sector process,
[01:21]and the private economy is experiencing a broad retreat
[01:26]from credit-driven spending. Mark Zandi of Moody's Economy.com
[01:34]reports this astonishing figure: since last spring,
[01:39]the number of bank credit cards has dropped 100 million, about 25 percent.
[01:48]Banks are tightening credit standards
[01:51](partly in reaction to new credit-card legislation designed
[01:56]to protect borrowers from rate increases) and consumers are canceling cards.
[02:05]Meanwhile, empty office buildings, closed retail stores,
[02:11]and underutilized factories have depressed business investment spending.
[02:18]In the third quarter it was down 20 percent from its 2008 peak.
[02:24]Despite huge federal budget deficits, total borrowing in the economy
[02:32]dropped in the first half of the year; that hasn't happened before,
[02:38]in statistics dating to 1952.
[02:43]Companies hire mainly when they see greater demand for their products
[02:49]and believe that extra workers will generate higher profits.
[02:54]More jobs then elevate confidence and demand. But for now,
[03:01]the logic is running in reverse. To restore profitability,
[03:07]companies are firing workers, and the ensuing pessimism erodes confidence
[03:14]and spending. Beyond households' $12 trillion loss in net worth,
[03:22]mostly reflecting lower stock and home values,
[03:26]Americans are saving more to guard against joblessness, lost overtime,
[03:33]or lower wages.
[03:36]The good news is that the bad news may be peaking.
[03:41]Extra inventories are declining; new orders will spur production.
[03:48]There is repressed demand for cars and appliances.
[03:53]The devastated housing market is showing signs of revival-more sales,
[04:00]stable prices. Initial claims for unemployment insurance have dropped,
[04:07]as have monthly job losses (from about 700,000 per month
[04:14]early in the year to about 200,000 recently).
[04:18]Corporate profits have recovered from lows, easing pressure for layoffs.