The Optimism Bias
We like to think of ourselves as rational creatures.
We watch our backs, weigh the odds, pack an umbrella.
But both neuroscience and social science suggest
that we are more optimistic than realistic.
On average, we expect things to turn out better
than they wind up being.
People hugely underestimate
their chances of getting divorced,
losing their job or being diagnosed with cancer;
expect their children to be extraordinarily gifted;
envision themselves achieving more than their peers;
and overestimate their likely life span.
The belief that the future will be much better
than the past and present
is known as the optimism bias.
It abides in every race, region and socioeconomic bracket.
Schoolchildren playing when-I-grow-up
are rampant optimists,
but so are grownups:
a recent study found that adults over 60
are just as likely to see the glass half full as young adults.
You might expect optimism to erode
under the tide of news about violent conflicts,
high unemployment, tornadoes and floods
and all the threats and failures that shape human life.
Collectively we can grow pessimistic-
about the direction of our country
or the ability of our leaders
to improve education and reduce crime.
But private optimism, about our personal future,
remains incredibly resilient.
A survey conducted last year found
that while 70% thought families in general
were less successful than in their parents' day,
76% of respondents were optimistic
about the future of their own family.
Overly positive assumptions
can lead to disastrous miscalculations-
make us less likely to get health checkups,
apply sunscreen or open a savings account,
and more likely to bet the farm on a bad investment.
But the bias also protects and inspires us:
it keeps us moving forward
rather than to the nearest high-rise ledge.
Without optimism,
our ancestors might never have ventured far from their tribes
and we might all be cave dwellers,
still huddled together and dreaming of light and heat.
To make progress,
we need to be able to imagine alternative realities-
better ones-
and we need to believe that we can achieve them.
Such faith helps motivate us to pursue our goals.
Optimists in general work longer hours and tend to earn more.
Economists at Duke University found
that optimists even save more.
And although they are not less likely to divorce,
they are more likely to remarry-an act that is,
as Samuel Johnson wrote,
the triumph of hope over experience.