足球转会：金钱狂欢背后的玄机

今年夏天，欧洲足球转会市场格外火爆，英超俱乐部今夏的引援花费已经达到了创纪录的11.7亿镑，人们惊呼转会市场已经日趋疯狂甚至失控。事实果真如此吗？隐藏在转会交易背后的种种数据表明，球员看似惊人的转会身价并非毫无节制的烧钱游戏，而是经过了种种精细考量后做出的理性判断。

测试中可能遇到的词汇和知识：

realm[relm] n.王国，领域

rationality[ˌræʃə'næləti] n.理性，合理性

breach[briːtʃ] vt.违反，突破

ramp[ræmp] vt.加速

upfront[ˌʌp'frʌnt] adj.在前面的，预付的

proportionate[prə'pɔːʃənət] adj.成比例的，相称的

outlier['aʊtˌlaɪə] n. 局外人

fare[feə(r)] v. 进展，经营

Record football transfer deals within the realms of the rational(804 words)

By Murad Ahmed

Antonio Conte, manager of English Premier League champions Chelsea, has labelled spending on players as “crazy”, with Europe’s top football clubs breaking all previous transfer records over the past few weeks.

At the top of the market was Paris Saint-Germain’s €222m signing of Neymar from FC Barcelona, a deal “beyond calculation and beyond rationality”, according to Arsène Wenger, the Arsenal manager.

Yet, as the summer transfer window — three months when teams can acquire players — closes next Thursday, analysis of the multibillion-euro transfer market suggests most clubs are behaving more rationally than some believe.

According to Deloitte, more than £1.17bn has been splashed out this summer by clubs in the Premier League, Europe’s wealthiest division, where they have combined revenues of roughly £4.5bn. Overall spending in this summer’s window has already breached the £1.16bn spent by English sides during the same period in 2016.

However, the consultancy adds that player spending has remained roughly 20 per cent of team revenues on average. Premier League clubs have the benefit of a £5.1m domestic broadcasting deal with Sky and BT that came into effect last season, allowing them to ramp up spending.

Tim Bridge, a senior manager at Deloitte’s sports business group, says: “Clubs do not account for a transfer all upfront, instead spreading the fee across the life of the contract, so a £30m to £40m revenue uplift in one year translates to £200m in transfer spend across a five-year period.”

“The scale of the numbers attracts attention and gets people asking the question about whether this is sustainable. But on a proportionate level, we are seeing it remain at a similar level.”

Neymar’s transfer is an outlier, with the Brazilian forward’s fee representing more than 40 per cent of PSG’s revenues of €521m. However, the French club believes the global superstar will enable it to secure higher income from future commercial and merchandising deals, as well as achieve better performances in European competition.

When it comes to assessing players’ value, many top teams are adopting an increasingly analytical approach.

21st Club, a London-based football consultancy, is among those to develop a statistically based model to assess signings.

Other clubs, such as Liverpool, Arsenal, Manchester City and Bayern Munich, have invested in in-house analytics teams and are believed to have adopted similar methods to judge potential signings.

The 21st Club model, used by a number of European clubs, takes several factors into account to predict how many points a player could add to a team’s final total at the end of a season.

The system analyses the relative strength of the teams a player is moving between, judged on each side’s past results; the total minutes spent on the pitch, with the theory being that managers pick the best possible side, so better footballers play more often; and other indicators, such as the number of goals and assists a player contributes in games.

New signings are compared with those they are replacing. For example, Romelu Lukaku, a Belgium striker, was signed by Manchester United from Everton. Lukaku is not predicted to earn more points than Zlatan Ibrahimovic. But he is a significant improvement on the club’s other attacking options.

“It’s a very affordable transfer for Manchester United,” says Omar Chaudhuri, head of football intelligence at 21st Club. “When you consider they have got him probably on a five-year contract, they have locked him during the best years of his career.”

A player of Neymar’s quality is projected to add up to 6.4 league points to PSG’s total this season. Such gains matter. PSG finished eight points behind Monaco last season, meaning Neymar’s signing is likely to have substantially closed the gap between the Parisian team and its main domestic rival.

But 21st Club’s model also suggests transfer values for players. Based on historical prices, top-of-the-market signings should equate to about 20-25 per cent of a club’s revenues. That would suggest that PSG should have paid no more than €150m for Neymar but were forced to spend more in order to trigger his buyout clause.

Other signings are considered poor by comparison. Chelsea spent €40m on Tiémoué Bakayoko, a defensive midfielder from Monaco. Analysis by 21st Club suggests he is no better than any of the club’s current player options in the same position.

One reason Bakayoko fares badly is that, though Monaco had one of the best attacking sides in Europe last season, the French champions were not a strong defensive team — an area where Chelsea excel.

Mr Bridge at Deloitte says the transfer market is relatively efficient in assessing players’ worth. “I’m certainly in no position to tell Arsène Wenger and Antonio Conte to move with the times,” he says. “But . . . clubs will pay the values they have paid according to their need or desire to fill that position with the best available player.

“I’m sure there are bargains out there still. It’s the responsibility of clubs to go and scout players and try and find the best value.”

请根据你所读到的文章内容，完成以下自测题目：

1.Which football manager has described clubs' spending on players as “crazy”？

A. Antonio Conte.

B. Arsène Wenger.

C. José Mourinho.

D. Pep Guardiola.

答案(1)

2.Which of the following is not a reason why PSG was willing to pay a disproportionate amount of money on Neymar’s transfer?

A. Neymar can help them secure higher income from future commercial and merchandising deals.

B. A global superstar will enable the team to achieve better performances in European competition.

C. They were forced to spend more in order to trigger the buyout clause stipulated in Neymar's contract.

D. PSG believes they can recoup the marquee player’s €222m transfer fee through shirt sales.

答案(2)

3.What is the 21st Club model according to the article？

A. A football consultancy which develop a statistically based model to assess signings.

B. A system which analyses how many points a player could add to a team’s final total.

C. An in-house analytics team which helps football club to judge potential signings.

D. An European management company providing services to professional football players.

答案(3)

4.Why does the author conclude that Bakayoko deal fares badly？

A. Bakayoko's signing is not enough to close the gap between Chelsea and its main domestic rival.

B. Bakayoko is projected to add few league points to Chelsea’s total this season according to analysis.

C. Analysis shows Bakayoko will not offer any improvement over Chelsea's alternatives in his position.

D. Bakayoko's transfer fee represents a higher percentage of income than rivals’ top signings.

答案(4)

* * *

(1) 答案：A.Antonio Conte.

解释：上赛季英超冠军切尔西的主教练安东尼奥·孔蒂表示，球员的转会费堪称“疯狂”。

(2) 答案：D.PSG believes they can recoup the marquee player’s €222m transfer fee through shirt sales.

解释：PSG购买内马尔付出的钱超过了球队利润的40%，这家法国球队相信这名国际巨星能够为他们带来更多商业收入和更好的欧战成绩。另外，为了激活内马尔的买断条款，他们不得不付出更多钱。

(3) 答案：B.A system which analyses how many points a player could add to a team’s final total.

解释：第21俱乐部模型是一个预测系统，根据多种因素来预测一名球员能够在整个赛季中为球队贡献多少积分。

(4) 答案：C.Analysis shows Bakayoko will not offer any improvement over Chelsea's alternatives in his position.

解释：在切尔西的阵容中，巴卡约科并不比任何一位同一位置上的其他球员更优秀。