股神凯恩斯？
约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯(John Maynard Keynes)是现代宏观经济学的创始人，他的《通论》等影响世界的著作让他享有“资本主义的救星”、“战后繁荣之父”等美称。那么，经济学大师凯恩斯是否也是一位“股神级”的投资家呢？
测试中可能遇到的词汇和知识：
diversification[daɪ,vɜːsɪfɪ'keɪʃən] n.（投资经营的）分散化，多样化
impresario|[,impri'sɑrio] n.歌剧，乐团的经理人
harem ['hɑːriːm]闺房
Sage of Omaha 奥马哈先知，奥马哈圣人，即沃伦·巴菲特
affinity [ə'fɪnɪtɪ] n.亲密关系，类同
dabble ['dæb(ə)l] v.涉猎；涉足
currency speculation 货币投机，指通过短期操纵货币兑换谋取汇率变化上的利润
insider trading 内幕交易
A lesson from the other ‘sage’ of investing (626 words)
By FT UNDERCOVER ECONOMIST Tim Harford
In his famous letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders in 1988, Warren Buffett declared: “When we own portions of outstanding businesses with outstanding managements, our favourite holding period is forever.” Compare this statement, apparently from a kindred spirit: “As time goes on, I get more and more convinced that the right method in investment is to put fairly large sums into enterprises which one thinks one knows something about and in the management of which one thoroughly believes.”
Earlier, in 1984, Buffett had explained his view on diversification by approvingly quoting the theatre impresario Billy Rose: “If you have a harem of 40 women, you never get to know any of them very well.” Here’s that kindred spirit again:
“It is a mistake to think that one limits one’s risk by spreading too much between enterprises about which one knows little and has no reason for special confidence.”
In each case the second statement is from a man who is as quotable as the Sage of Omaha himself: John Maynard Keynes, writing to a colleague in 1934. The affinity between Buffett and Keynes isn’t a new discovery but a newly published study of Keynes’s investments for King’s College, Cambridge allows us to see whether Keynes took his own advice, and whether the results paid off.
Keynes had dabbled in currency speculation after the first world war, trading on margin and realising both large losses and large gains. But after assuming responsibility for the college’s investments in 1921, Keynes had to take a different approach. He persuaded the college to liberate part of its endowment from its traditional, highly conservative strictures, and it is this “Discretionary Portfolio” which has been tracked by David Chambers and Elroy Dimson of Cambridge’s Judge Business School.
At first, Keynes – who arguably invented the very idea of macroeconomics – relied on his gifts as an economist to time the business cycle, moving in and out of investments as economic trends dictated. It speaks volumes about macroeconomics that even for Keynes, this approach was not a success. By August 1929, the Discretionary Portfolio lagged behind the UK equity market by a cumulative 17.2 per cent. Worse, the stock market collapsed in September and Keynes had failed to see it coming.
Chambers and Dimson then document a change in Keynes’s approach. Instead of trying to anticipate macroeconomic trends, Keynes searched for undervalued stocks, bought substantial holdings and tended to hold on to them. He favoured companies that paid generous dividends and distressed companies that held out the possibility of recovery. This approach paid off handsomely, dragging Keynes’s lifetime track record with the Discretionary Portfolio up to a 16 per cent annual return, well above the 10.4 per cent of the market as a whole.
But Keynes was not just a successful value investor, he was an investment innovator. He appears to have developed the basic principles of value investing independently of Benjamin Graham, the man most closely associated with the approach. And he advanced the idea that equities were a fit investment for the likes of King’s College, at a time when any respectable investor would have stuck to property and bonds.
One note of caution, however: Keynes was very well connected, particularly in the mining sector, where he invested heavily and successfully. Insider trading was also legal in Keynes’s day.
Chambers and Dimson don’t think that the latter is the chief explanation of Keynes’s success. That said, he was so well connected that in 1925 he even received advance notice that the Bank of England’s interest rate was to change. Value investing is a fine idea – but perhaps a little easier to pull off if you are John Maynard Keynes.
请根据你所读到的文章内容，完成以下自测题目：
1.Which statement is TRUE in regarding to Keynes’s idea about ‘diversification’?
A. One should better invest in enterprises he knows about.
B. Diversification does not always reduce the risks of investments.
C. Buffett’s ideas are similar to Keynes’s.
D. All of above.
答案(1)
2.Which of the followings is NOT TURE?
A. Keynes can be considered as the Sage of Omaha and the father of macroeconomics.
B. Keynes advanced the change of Bank of England’s interest rate in 1925.
C. Keynes developed basic principles and advanced innovative ideas in investment.
D. Keynes invested heavily and made a fortune in the mining sector.
答案(2)
3.Which statement is NOT TURE according to the article?
A. In Keynes’s era, most investors preferred bonds and property to equities.
B. Discretionary Portfolio was not a successful idea at the start.
C. Keynes experienced huge gains before the Great Depression of 1929.
D. Keynes knew that the Bank of England was about to change its interest rate in 1925.
答案(3)
4.What do we know about the research of Cambridge’s Chambers and Dimson?
A. They think Keynes’s earnings in the mining sector have nothing to do with his fame.
B. They are professors teaching in Cambridge’s Judge Business School.
C. They agree with the changes of approach that Keynes made in Discretionary Portfolio.
D. None of above.
答案(4)
* * *
(1) 答案：D.All of above.
解释：文中所引用的凯恩斯的两段话，意思为：“正确的投资方法是将相当大比例的资金投入到他个人认为自己非常了解而且管理也完全值得信任的企业上。而投资人如果认为，通过将资金分散投资到大量他几乎一无所知并且没有任何理由予以特别信任的企业，就可以据此限制自己的投资风险，这种看法是完全错误的。”
(2) 答案：B.Keynes advanced the change of Bank of England’s interest rate in 1925.
解释：原文是“...he even received advance notice that the Bank of England’s interest rate was to change”，也就是他被告知、而非预见了利率的改变。
(3) 答案：C.Keynes experienced huge gains before the Great Depression of 1929.
解释：C错误。通读全文可知，凯恩斯的投资实践有三个阶段：第一个阶段是一战（1918）后的货币市场投资； 第二阶段是1921年说服剑桥大学改变保守的投资策略，这一阶段他的投资并不成功，到1929年，他主持的投资组合比英国股市平均水平落后了17.2%； 第三阶段是颇为成功的，他投资股价被低估的和高分红的公司，让他的一生投资业绩达到16%的年回报率，比市场平均的10.4%高出不少。
在阅读时，你会读到一些年份和百分数字，重要的是搞清它们的时间先后和高低顺序。
(4) 答案：D.None of above.
解释：D正确。A与最后一段意思相反，而B、C文中均未提及。
