Day 25 A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise

The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.

“A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, the proposed new jazz club in Monroe, the C-Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly’, which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

五问：

（1）“Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away”和“over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer; several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe; and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is ‘Jazz Nightly’, which airs every weeknight at 7 P.M. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment”是事实， “A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）当前最近的爵士俱乐部在 65英里远，这是为什么？是否有这样的可能性，就是当地人并不喜欢，或者并没有孕育出能让爵士酒吧生存下去的市场？另外，原文有没有给出足够的信息来评判 65英里对于当地人来说是否足够远？当地缺少 jazz club就意味着新开的 C-Note一定会受欢迎吗？其他因素，例如价格、服务水平等，都会影响人们的决定。

（3）有超过十万人参加当地每年一度的爵士音乐节，是否就意味着他们一定很喜欢爵士乐？这些人一定是当地人吗？一些著名的爵士乐手住在当地，这会增加还是减少当地人去爵士酒吧的概率？

（4）当地最受欢迎的广播节目与爵士乐相关，是否就意味着这里的人们一定很喜欢爵士乐？还有其他哪些因素会影响一个广播节目受欢迎的程度？比如，节目的播出时间就极其重要。

（5）原文最后给出了一个全国范围的调查，但这个调查结果一定适用于当地吗？集体特点一定适用于个体吗？乐迷每年花费的 1 000美元一定是用在 jazz club上吗？这笔钱也可能用于买唱片、买演唱会门票等。另外，有市场就一定会盈利吗？酒吧的运营、管理等都会对盈利与否造成影响。