Day 60 Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating

The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.

“Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.”

Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.

五问：

（1）“Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth”是事实，“we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）上一个供暖季节是这样，就意味着下一个供暖季节也将会如此吗？请同学们回顾一下：为什么我们认为时间轴论证是一种危险的论证方式？有哪些因素可能会影响该论证的有效性？天气预报员就一定是准确的吗？

（3）90 天的低温天气就意味着燃油使用量一定会增加吗？供暖还可以通过天然气、电力、太阳能等方式实现，如果很多人选择这些非传统的取暖方式，油料的使用反而有可能降低。

（4）新的房屋正在建造中，就意味着油料的使用一定会增加吗？油料是否可能被取代？你能否试着说说：如果有其他可能的能源出现，将如何影响油料的使用量？

（5）Consolidated Industries 是否值得投资，除了取决于该公司的油料销售量是否会增长之外，是否有其他因素？你能试着罗列一两个吗？例如：这家公司的其他业务发展情况是否良好，它的竞争对手实力如何等。