Day 176 Our team has completed its research on suitable building sites for a new HobCo Hobby Shop in the city of Grilldon

The following appeared in a memo from New Ventures Consulting to the president of HobCo, Inc., a chain of hobby shops.

“Our team has completed its research on suitable building sites for a new HobCo Hobby Shop in the city of Grilldon. We discovered that there are currently no hobby shops in southeastern Grilldon. When our researchers conducted a poll of area residents, 88 percent of those who responded indicated that they would welcome the opening of a hobby shop in southeastern Grilldon. Grilldon is in a region of the nation in which the hobby business has increased by 300 percent during the past decade. In addition, Grilldon has a very large population of retirees, a demographic with ample time to devote to hobbies. We therefore recommend that you choose southeastern Grilldon as the site for your next HobCo Hobby Shop. We predict that a shop in this area will draw a steady stream of enthusiastic new HobCo customers.”

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

五问：

（1）“We therefore recommend that you choose southeastern Grilldon as the site for your next HobCo Hobby Shop”是结论，结论之前的部分都是事实，值得反驳吗？

（2）原文中的论述简单地将 hobby shop和HobCo Hobby Shop画上了等号，这样的论述会出现哪些问题？当地居民欢迎开设 hobby shop，并不能说明他们会支持 HobCo Hobby Shop。

（3）在调查过程中， 88%的赞同率来自愿意反馈的本地居民，这样的调查有效率高吗？不愿意反馈的受访者有多少呢？另外，文中不断混淆两个地域， Grilldon这个城市的特质不一定与它的东南部地区相同。 Grilldon的退休人口多就意味着其东南部地区退休人口也多吗？

（4）hobby business 和hobby shop能否简单地对应？ hobby business还有哪些形式？如直接零售、虚拟网络等。我们是否能简单地认为 hobby business的增长就一定带来人们对 hobby shop的极大需求呢？

（5）老年人一定愿意投身于 hobby business吗？他们还能利用空闲时间做些什么？你能罗列一两个方面吗？例如：旅行、做义工等。