Dry weather, increasing fertilizer costs, and concerns over export rules are pushing farmers in Argentina to plant less wheat.
干燥的天气、不断上涨的化肥成本以及对出口规则的担忧,正促使阿根廷农民减少小麦种植。
They might plant more soybeans instead.
他们可能会种植更多的大豆。
That is causing worries in world markets because the South American nation is the world's number six exporter of wheat.
这引起了世界市场的担忧，因为这个南美国家是世界第六大小麦出口国。
Argentina's production is even more important because of the worldwide wheat shortage. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has greatly increased wheat prices. The two countries are among the world's top wheat producers.
由于全球小麦短缺，阿根廷的产量更为重要。俄罗斯入侵乌克兰使小麦价格大幅上涨。这两个国家是世界上最大的小麦生产国之一。
Juan Francisco Arregui is an Argentinian farmer. He told Reuters, "The season for wheat is complicated." His fields have not received rainfall in two months. He said the crop needs rain to arrive soon, but weather predictions are not promising.
Juan Francisco Arregui 是一位阿根廷农民。他告诉路透社，“小麦的生长季节很复杂。” 他的农田已经两个月没有下雨了。他说作物需要降雨快点到来，但天气预报并不乐观。
While there was enough water to plant the seeds, "there is not much left," he said. He added, "It means that the wheat crop is not sure by any means. We can get it started, but then we are waiting for rain."
他说，虽然有足够的水来播种，但水已“所剩无几”。他补充说，“这意味着无论如何小麦的收成都无法保证。我们可以开始播种，但之后我们只能等待下雨。”
Argentina had a record wheat harvest of 22.4 million metric tons in the season that ended. Suppliers were hoping the country could replace the grain lost because of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
上一季，阿根廷的小麦收成达到创纪录的 2240 万吨。供应商原本希望该国能够补充因俄罗斯入侵乌克兰而损失的粮食。
But now, both of Argentina's main grains exchanges, Buenos Aires and Rosario, have cut wheat planting predictions. And they are warning of more cuts if the weather does not improve.
但现在，阿根廷主要的谷物交易所布宜诺斯艾利斯和罗萨里奥都下调了小麦种植预测。他们警告说，如果天气没有好转，将会减产更多。
Cristian Russo is the head agronomist at the Rosario grains exchange. Its highest estimate of the next harvest is 18.5 million metric tons. Russo said, "Today anything that goes wrong with wheat is more important and means greater losses."Cristian Russo 是罗萨里奥谷物交易所的首席农艺师。它对下一季小麦收成的最高估计是1850万吨。Russo 说：“如今，小麦出现任何问题都更重要，也意味着更大的损失。”
The exchange has warned about the worst wheat planting conditions in 12 years. It says planting of the grain is at 65 percent because of the dry conditions. Many fields could be left unplanted.
该交易所已就小麦种植条件发出了12年来最差的预警。它说由于干燥的条件，谷物的种植率为65%。许多田地可能被闲置。
Fertilizer and politics
肥料与政治
The Russia-Ukraine fighting has also greatly increased fertilizer prices. Russia is a major supplier. The loss of Russian fertilizer has hit farmers from the United States to South America.俄乌战争也使化肥价格大幅上涨。俄罗斯是主要供应国。俄罗斯化肥的切断使得从美国到南美的农民都深受打击。
Arregui said this season he paid $1,600 per metric ton for phosphate fertilizer. That is more than double the $700 he paid a year ago. Another fertilizer, called urea, doubled to $1,100 per metric ton. That pushed him away from planting wheat to planting soy, which requires a lower investment.
Arregui说，本季磷肥价格达到每吨1,600 美元,是他一年前只需700美元的两倍多。另一种称为尿素的肥料也翻了一番，达到每吨 1,100 美元。他不得不从种植小麦转向种植投资较低的大豆。
Concerns over government intervention also weigh on farmers' minds. Officials in Argentina are trying to control national inflation which is at about 60 percent. The government has kept a lower cap on wheat exports than last year. It has raised export taxes on the products soymeal and oil, and has threatened higher taxes for wheat. But Reuters news service reports that there is not enough support in congress for that step.对政府干预的担忧也令农民忧心忡忡。阿根廷官员正试图控制大约60%的全国通货膨胀率。与去年相比，政府降低了小麦出口的上限,在提高豆粕和石油产品出口税的同时，宣称要对小麦征收更高的税。但路透社报道称，国会对这一举措没有足够的支持。
Wheat exports for the 2022 to 2023 growing cycle are currently capped at 10 million metric tons, from 14.5 million metric tons a year earlier. That limit could be raised later however.目前,2022年至2023年生长周期的小麦出口上限为1000万吨，而一年前为1450 万吨。不过，这个上限可能会在以后提高。
Arregui said, "Here you go to bed on a Sunday and on a Monday you don't know what news you're going to find." He was commenting on the changes in government policy.Arregui 说：“在这里,周日上床睡觉，周一你不知道会发生什么新闻。” 他是在评论政府政策的多变。
He added, "Every day they are making decisions that indirectly affect what you do and it's a terrible uncertainty, you can't plan anything. It really costs you a lot every day."他补充说，“他们每天都在做出间接影响你的决定，这种可怕的不确定性，让你无法做任何计划,每天都要耗费很大的精力。”
I'm Gregory Stachel.
格雷戈里·斯塔切尔报道。
