Spot iron ore prices are fast approaching $100 a tonne, well above the levels at which miners and steelmakers in Japan, South Korea and Europe have struck supply deals, as demand outside China recovers.

随着中国以外的需求复苏，铁矿石现货价格正快速逼近每吨100美元，远高于矿商与日本、韩国和欧洲钢铁制造商达成的协议价格。

The surge in spot prices has spurred several banks to forecast that benchmark – annually negotiated – prices will rise next year, reversing their previous expectations of a fall in prices. “The market is going up, up and up,” said one London-based iron ore broker.

现货价格飙升，已促使数家银行一改之前看跌的预期，预测明年的基准价格（每年谈判一次）将上涨。“市场行情在不断上涨，”伦敦一位铁矿石经纪人表示。

Spot ore prices in China rose this week to $93 a tonne – including freight – and industry observers said the market could hit a year high above $100 a tonne in the near term. The surge is a remarkable rebound from April's low of $58 a tonne.

中国铁矿石现货价格本周升至每吨93美元（包括运费），而行业观察家表示，近期市场可能会创下年度新高，突破每吨100美元。相较于4月份每吨58美元的低位，本轮反弹的幅度相当引人注目。

Christopher LaFemina, mining analyst with Barclays Capital in London, forecast a 5 per cent increase in 2010-11, to be followed by another 10 per cent rise the following year.

巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)驻伦敦的矿业分析师克里斯托弗•拉菲米纳(Christopher La Femina)预测，在2010-11年度，价格将上涨5%，接下的一年将进一步上涨10%。

David Butler, of Cazenove in London, said that a rise of 20 per cent next year was “increasingly a realistic outcome”.

伦敦嘉诚(Cazenove)的戴维•巴特勒(David Butler)表示，明年价位上涨20%正“逐渐成为一个现实的结果”。

The recovery in demand outside China, as steel producers restart idled production, is allowing miners Vale of Brazil, Rio Tinto and BHP Billiton to ship more ore elsewhere and reduce supplies to the Chinese spot market. Spot prices for iron ore in China are rising as a result.

随着钢铁制造商重启闲置的生产设备，中国以外的需求反弹，这使巴西淡水河谷(Vale of Brazil)、力拓(Rio Tinto)和必和必拓(BHP Billiton)等矿商能够向别处发运更多的矿石，而减少对中国现货市场的供应。中国铁矿石现货价格正因此不断上涨。

China's iron ore demand remains strong, with the country's steelmakers in June producing 49.42m tonnes of steel, an all-time monthly high.

中国的铁矿石需求依旧强劲，该国钢铁商6月份生产了4942万吨钢铁，为创纪录月度新高。

BHP Billiton said yesterday that while China had almost completed a build-up in metals and minerals such as iron ore, “restocking” was evident in the US, Europe and Japan. The miner said its ore output fell 10 per cent for the three months ending June.

必和必拓昨日表示，尽管中国已基本完成金属和铁矿石等矿物的收储工作，但美国、欧洲和日本明显正在“重新补充库存”。这家矿商表示，在截至6月的3个月内，其矿石产量下降了10%。

Malcolm Southwood, of Goldman Sachs JBWere in Sydney, said there was “scope for further strength in spot iron ore prices over the next six to 12 months” because of continued strength in Chinese steel output and “a recent improvement in demand for contract deliveries from non-Chinese steel mills”.

Goldman Sachs JBWere驻悉尼的马尔科姆•索斯伍德(Malcolm Southwood)表示，由于中国钢产量持续高企，以及“中国以外钢厂的合约交割需求近期有所增加”，“未来6至12个月内，铁矿石现货价格还有进一步走高空间”。

The current spot price is almost 15 per cent above the level at which annual benchmark deals have been struck between global miners and big steelmakers outside China. Those agreements cut benchmark prices for the 2009-10 year by about 33 per cent from the 2008-09 level.

相较于全球矿商与中国以外大型钢铁商之间达成的年度基准价格水平，目前现货价格已高出近15%。上述协议将2009-10年度基准价格在2008-09年度的基础上削减约33%。

Chinese steelmakers and miners remain deadlocked about a benchmark deal for 2009-10.

中国钢铁商和矿商仍在2009-10年度基准价格的问题上僵持不下。

译者/陈云飞