Donald Trump has won the presidency, despite losing the popular vote. The US has, as a result, chosen as its next president a man whose inexperience, character, temperament and knowledge appear to make him unsuited for this high office. The consequences of a Trump presidency will be many and various. But the economic ones will not be the least important. His administration might even reverse globalisation, destabilise the financial system, weaken US public finances and threaten trust in the dollar.
虽然没有赢得直选票，唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)还是赢得了总统宝座。其结果是，美国选择了一个经验、性格、脾气和学识似乎都不适合这一高位的人为下届总统。特朗普当选总统将带来多种多样的后果。但经济上的影响将尤为重要。他的政府甚至可能逆转全球化，动摇金融体系，削弱美国的公共财政，并危及全球对美元的信心。
US-led globalisation is already fragile. Mr Trump seems likely to push it into its coffin. After his victory, the Trans-Pacific Partnership looks dead. That might leave an opening for a Beijing-led alternative: the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. But TPP might be replaced by nothing. The proposed Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership was moribund and is now dead. Mr Trump has also suggested repeal or renegotiation of the North American Free Trade Agreement.
美国领导的全球化早已四分五裂。特朗普看起来将让其“寿终正寝”。特朗普获胜后，《跨太平洋伙伴关系协定》(Trans-Pacific Partnership, TPP)似乎已死。这或将给北京主导的“区域全面经济伙伴关系协定”(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership)打开大门。但可能没有任何协定来代替TPP。之前垂死挣扎的跨大西洋贸易与投资伙伴关系协定》(Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership, TTIP)如今也已断气。特朗普还建议废除或者重新谈判《北美自由贸易协定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)。
Above all, he has suggested imposition of high tariffs, especially on imports from China and Mexico, “to discourage companies from laying off their workers in order to relocate in other countries and ship their products back to the US tax-free”. They would almost certainly be contrary to World Trade Organisation rules. They would also create a risk of retaliation. The costs to the US, world trade and the credibility of the trading system might prove very high.
最重要的是，他建议征收高关税，特别是针对来自中国和墨西哥的进口商品，“以阻止企业解雇本国员工，到国外建厂并免税将产品运回美国”。这些措施几乎必然违背世贸组织(WTO)规则，还可能招致报复。它们对美国、世界贸易以及世贸体系的可信性造成的代价可能也会非常高。
A second area of concern is financial regulation. Mr Trump has supported repeal of the 2010 Dodd-Frank Act, the regulatory response to the financial crisis. Many financial businesses hate it. Yet the question is whether it would be replaced by a more effective alternative or by a return to the pre-crisis free-for-all. 第二个令人担忧的领域是金融监管。特朗普支持废除2010年为应对金融危机通过的《多德-弗兰克法》(Dodd-Frank Act)。许多金融企业不喜欢这一监管法案。然而，问题在于，将有一项更有效的法律来取代它，还是要回到危机前的自由放任状态。
If the latter, the chances of another, possibly bigger, crisis would surely be enhanced. Yet on financial regulation, unlike on trade, Mr Trump’s populism might protect the US from the worst deregulatory instincts of congressional Republicans rather than the reverse.
如果是后者，那么未来再次发生(或许更大)危机的可能性必将上升。然而，不同于贸易，在金融监管方面，特朗普的民粹主义或许可以保护美国免遭国会共和党人放松管制的最坏本能的危害，而不是相反。
Mr Trump also wants a big surge of spending on infrastructure and tax cuts. The former would be desirable, particularly if the projects were sensible. Indeed, it would be deeply ironic if Mr Trump carried out, with Republican support in Congress, precisely the sort of Keynesian fiscal stimulus congressional Republicans adamantly opposed when reasonably suggested by the administration of Barack Obama in 2009. Unfortunately, the timing would be far worse since the US economy of today is vastly closer to full employment than it was back then.
特朗普还希望大幅增加基础设施支出和大规模减税。前者将是可取的，特别是如果这些项目合理的话。实际上，如果特朗普在国会共和党人的支持下实施这一政策将很具有讽刺意味，因为正是这种凯恩斯式的财政刺激计划，巴拉克•奥巴马(Barack Obama)政府2009年合理地提出时却遭到了国会共和党人的坚决反对。遗憾的是，时机已变得糟得多，因为如今美国经济远比那时更接近充分就业。
The tax proposals would shower huge benefits on already rich Americans such as Mr Trump. According to the Tax Policy Center, his latest plan would raise the after-tax income of those in the middle fifth of the income distribution by $1,010 or 1.8 per cent. But the top 0.1 of the population would enjoy an average tax cut of nearly $1.1m, or more than 14 per cent of after-tax income. The cumulative increase in federal debt might be as much as 25 per cent of gross domestic product by 2026. Congressional Republicans might wish to offset the latter, at least partially, by slashing spending, including on social security and health. But Mr Trump opposes this.
减税提议将令已经很富有的美国人(如特朗普)享受巨大好处。根据美国税收政策中心(Tax Policy Center)的数据，特朗普的最新计划将让处于收入分布中间五分之一的人口的税后收入提高1010美元或1.8%。但收入最高的0.1%的人口平均将享受接近110万美元的减税，超过税后收入的14%。到2026年，联邦债务累计增幅或将高达国内生产总值(GDP)的25%。国会的共和党人可能希望通过削减社保、医疗等方面的开支至少部分地弥补后者。
Together, then, Mr Trump’s populism and the Republicans’ tax-cutting mania might open up large and permanent increases in fiscal deficits. This would then pose a big challenge for the US Federal Reserve. The obvious response would be to tighten monetary policy. Mr Trump has indicated he favours this. But he has also suggested the economy should grow at close to 4 per cent a year. That seems impossible given the slow growth of the labour force.
于是，特朗普的民粹主义与共和党的减税狂热结合在一起，或许会导致财政赤字大规模不断增加。这将给美联储(Fed)带来巨大挑战。美联储的回应很可能是收紧货币政策。特朗普曾表示自己赞成这样。但他也表示过，美国经济应该以每年接近4%的速度增长。考虑到劳动力的缓慢增长，这好像是不可能的。
Yet when choosing a replacement for Janet Yellen, Fed chair, by 2018, Mr Trump might look for someone who would run monetary policy on the assumption that such growth was feasible. The result would be the classic populist blend of ultra-loose fiscal and monetary policies. The effects are likely to be rising inflation, higher long-term nominal interest rates and a weak dollar. That might mark a transformation in the global monetary regime. It could even generate the sort of environment seen in the 1970s, when President Richard Nixon and Arthur Burns, Fed chairman, were in charge.
然而，2018年选择美联储主席珍妮特•耶伦(Janet Yellen)的继任者时，特朗普或许会寻找一位在假定这一增速可行的情况下实施货币政策的人士。结果将会是经典民粹主义组合：超宽松的财政和货币政策的结合。这很可能将导致通胀走高，长期名义利率上涨，美元走软。这或将标志着全球货币机制的转变。这甚至会导致上世纪70年代的一幕重现，当时掌舵的是总统理查德•尼克松(Richard Nixon)和美联储主席亚瑟•伯恩斯(Arthur Burns)。
What actually happens depends both on whether Mr Trump does as president what he stated as candidate, and on his interaction with Congress. Some suggest that wiser heads will contain his excesses. Little in his past behaviour suggests this is all that plausible. Make no mistake: Mr Trump’s triumph might destabilise the US and world economies.
实际会发生什么既取决于特朗普担任总统时会不会履行竞选期间的承诺，也取决于他与国会的互动。有人认为，国会中头脑较智慧的人将约束他的过度行为。但从他过去的行为中几乎看不出这可信。别搞错：特朗普的胜利可能会动摇美国和世界经济的稳定。
