The US economy added nearly half a million jobs in March. The Dow Jones industrial average is within 6% of its record high. And US households accumulated roughly $2.5 trillion in excess savings throughout the pandemic. 三月份美国增加了近50万就业岗位，道琼斯工业平均指数涨幅创下6%的新高，美国家庭在疫情期间的储蓄总额累计达近2.5万亿美元（约合人民币15.9万亿元）。

Still, despite all the good news, predictions of an impending recession are widespread on Wall Street.
尽管这些都是好消息，但是华尔街却普遍认为美国经济即将陷入衰退。

For some, it’s a matter of historical comparison.
对某些人而言，这是历史比较的结果。

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers emphasized in a recent Washington Post op-ed that current economic conditions are undeniably reminiscent of previous pre-recession periods in US history.
美国前财政部长劳伦斯•萨默斯在近期发表在《华盛顿邮报》上的一篇专栏文章中强调，当前的经济状况无疑让人联想起美国历史上的几次衰退前的情形。

"Over the past 75 years, every time inflation has exceeded 4% and unemployment has gone below 5%, the US economy has gone into a recession within two years,” Summers wrote.
萨默斯写道：“在过去75年间，每次通胀率超过4%，失业率降到5%以下，美国经济就会在两年内陷入衰退。”

Today, the US inflation rate is nearing 8%, and the unemployment rate fell to just 3.6% in March. As a result, Summers now sees an 80% chance of a US recession by next year.
如今，美国通胀率接近8%，失业率在三月份降至3.6%。因此，萨默斯认为美国有80%的几率将在明年陷入经济衰退。