听力课堂TED音频栏目主要包括TED演讲的音频MP3及中英双语文稿，供各位英语爱好者学习使用。本文主要内容为演讲MP3+双语文稿:增长的经济一定是健康的吗？，希望你会喜欢！
【演讲者及介绍】Kate Raworth
凯特•拉沃斯，经济学家。凯特•拉沃斯热衷于让经济学适应21世纪。
【演讲主题】健康的经济应该是繁荣的，而不是增长的
【中英文字幕】
翻译者 Yan Gao 校对者 Yolanda Zhang
00:13
Have you ever watched a baby learning to crawl? Because as any parent knows, it's gripping. First, they wriggle about on the floor, usually backwards, but then they drag themselves forwards, and then they pull themselves up to stand, and we all clap. And that simple motion of forwards and upwards, it's the most basic direction of progress we humans recognize.
你看过婴儿学习爬行吗？ 就像每个父母都知道的，它扣人心弦。开始，他们在地板上扭来扭去，通常是向后挪动，然后他们把自己往前拖，再用力向上拉，让自己站起来，大家一起鼓掌。这种向前、向上的简单运动，是我们人类认识到的 最基本的进步方向。
00:39
We tell it in our story of evolution as well, from our lolloping ancestors to Homo erectus, finally upright, to Homo sapiens, depicted, always a man, always mid-stride.
我们的进化理论也这么说，从我们摇晃前行的祖先到 终于站立行走的直立人，到智人，我们一直被称为人类，一直在前进。
00:52
So no wonder we so readily believe that economic progress will take this very same shape, this ever-rising line of growth. It's time to think again, to reimagine the shape of progress, because today, we have economies that need to grow, whether or not they make us thrive, and what we need, especially in the richest countries, are economies that make us thrive whether or not they grow. Yes, it's a little flippant word hiding a profound shift in mindset, but I believe this is the shift we need to make if we, humanity, are going to thrive here together this century.
因此，难怪我们很容易相信，经济发展将呈现同样的形态，这种不断上升的增长趋势。现在是时候重新想一想了，重新构想进步的形态，因为今天，我们拥有的经济 是需要增长的经济，而不管它能否让我们繁荣，而我们需要的，尤其是 在最富裕的国家，是那种能让我们繁荣的经济，而无论它们是否增长。是的，这话说着轻巧，它隐藏了心态的深刻转变，但我相信，如果我们人类 想在本世纪共同繁荣起来，就需要这个转变。
01:39
So where did this obsession with growth come from? Well, GDP, gross domestic product, it's just the total cost of goods and services sold in an economy in a year. It was invented in the 1930s, but it very soon became the overriding goal of policymaking, so much so that even today, in the richest of countries, governments think that the solution to their economic problems lies in more growth.
那么，这种对增长的 迷恋到底从何而来? GDP，国内生产总值，它只是一个经济体在一年内 销售的商品和服务的总成本。它诞生于20世纪30年代，但很快就成为 制定政策的首要目标，以至于直到今天，在最富裕的国家，政府仍然认为解决 经济问题的办法在于 更多的增长。
02:04
Just how that happened is best told through the 1960 classic by W.W. Rostow. I love it so much, I have a first-edition copy. "The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto."
之所以这样，在1960年W.W.罗斯托的 经典中做出了最好的说明。太喜欢它了，我有一本首发版的。《经济增长的阶段：非共产主义宣言》
02:22
(Laughter)
（笑声）
02:23
You can just smell the politics, huh?
能闻到政治的味道，是不是?
02:26
And Rostow tells us that all economies need to pass through five stages of growth: first, traditional society, where a nation's output is limited by its technology, its institutions and mindset; but then the preconditions for takeoff, where we get the beginnings of a banking industry, the mechanization of work and the belief that growth is necessary for something beyond itself, like national dignity or a better life for the children; then takeoff, where compound interest is built into the economy's institutions and growth becomes the normal condition; fourth is the drive to maturity where you can have any industry you want, no matter your natural resource base; and the fifth and final stage, the age of high-mass consumption where people can buy all the consumer goods they want, like bicycles and sewing machines -- this was 1960, remember.
罗斯托告诉我们，所有的经济体 都需要经历五个增长阶段： 首先，传统社会阶段，一个国家的产出 受到其技术、制度和 思维方式的限制； 然后，在起飞准备阶段，出现了新兴的银行业、 劳动的机械化、 以及一个信念—— 增长的必要已超越增长本身，比如增长是为了国家尊严，为了下一代的生活更美好，之后是起飞阶段，此时复利深入经济体制，增长成为常态； 第四是趋于成熟阶段，你可以拥有任何你想要的行业，不管你的自然资源基础如何； 第五个也是最后一个阶段，大规模消费的时代，人们可以买到想要的所有消费品，比如自行车和缝纫机—— 别忘了，那是1960年。
03:18
Well, you can hear the implicit airplane metaphor in this story, but this plane is like no other, because it can never be allowed to land. Rostow left us flying into the sunset of mass consumerism, and he knew it. As he wrote, "And then the question beyond, where history offers us only fragments. What to do when the increase in real income itself loses its charm?" He asked that question, but he never answered it, and here's why. The year was 1960, he was an advisor to the presidential candidate John F. Kennedy, who was running for election on the promise of five-percent growth, so Rostow's job was to keep that plane flying, not to ask if, how, or when it could ever be allowed to land.
你能在这里听出隐含的飞机比喻，但是这架飞机是独一无二的，因为它永远不可以着陆。罗斯托任我们飞向 大规模消费主义的落日，而且他知道这一点。正如他所写的，“然后，有一个问题，历史没有给我们提供多少信息。当实际收入增长本身失去 吸引力时，该怎么办?” 这是他问的问题，但他从来 没回答过，原因如下。那一年是1960年，他是总统候选人约翰·肯尼迪的顾问，肯尼迪在竞选时承诺了5%的增长，所以罗斯托的工作是让 那架飞机一直飞，而不要问是否可以着陆、 如何着陆、何时着陆。
04:17
So here we are, flying into the sunset of mass consumerism over half a century on, with economies that have come to expect, demand and depend upon unending growth, because we're financially, politically and socially addicted to it. We're financially addicted to growth, because today's financial system is designed to pursue the highest rate of monetary return, putting publicly traded companies under constant pressure to deliver growing sales, growing market share and growing profits, and because banks create money as debt bearing interest, which must be repaid with more. We're politically addicted to growth because politicians want to raise tax revenue without raising taxes and a growing GDP seems a sure way to do that. And no politician wants to lose their place in the G-20 family photo.
因此，半个多世纪以来，我们一路飞向大规模 消费主义的夕阳，经济已经变成期待、 要求，并依赖于 无止境的增长，因为我们在经济上、政治上和 社会上都沉迷于这种增长。我们在经济上沉迷于增长，因为今天的金融体系 旨在追求最高的货币回报率，使上市公司承受持续的压力，去实现销售增长、 市场份额增长和利润增长，并且因为银行创造资金 用作有利息的债务，而债务必须用更多的钱去偿还。我们在政治上沉迷于经济增长，因为政客们希望 在不涨税率的情况下 增加税收，而GDP增长似乎是实现 这一目标的可靠途径。没有哪个政客愿意在20国集团的 全家福中失去自己的位置。
05:07
(Laughter)
（笑声）
05:08
But if their economy stops growing while the rest keep going, well, they'll be booted out by the next emerging powerhouse. And we are socially addicted to growth, because thanks to a century of consumer propaganda, which fascinatingly was created by Edward Bernays, the nephew of Sigmund Freud, who realized that his uncle's psychotherapy could be turned into very lucrative retail therapy if we could be convinced to believe that we transform ourselves every time we buy something more.
如果他们的经济停止增长而 其他国家继续前进，那么他们将被下一个 新兴的经济强国淘汰。我们还在社会上迷恋经济增长，这是因为上百年的消费者宣传，神奇的是，它是由 西格蒙德 · 弗洛伊德的侄子 爱德华 · 伯奈斯发明的，他意识到他叔叔的心理治疗 可以变成非常 有利可图的购物疗法，只要能说服我们相信，每次购买更多的东西时，我们都在转化自己。
05:41
None of these addictions are insurmountable, but they all deserve far more attention than they currently get, because look where this journey has been taking us. Global GDP is 10 times bigger than it was in 1950 and that increase has brought prosperity to billions of people, but the global economy has also become incredibly divisive, with the vast share of returns to wealth now accruing to a fraction of the global one percent. And the economy has become incredibly degenerative, rapidly destabilizing this delicately balanced planet on which all of our lives depend. Our politicians know it, and so they offer new destinations for growth. You can have green growth, inclusive growth, smart, resilient, balanced growth. Choose any future you want so long as you choose growth.
这些沉迷都不是无法克服的，但它们都应该得到 比现在更多的关注，因为看看这段旅程将 带我们走向何方吧。全球GDP是1950年的10倍，这一增长给数十亿人带来了发展，但全球经济也变得 令人难以置信地分裂，现在财富回报的巨大份额 累积到全球1%的一小部分上。并且经济已经恶化到了 令人难以置信的程度，迅速破坏着我们所有人 赖以生存的这个微妙平衡着的 星球的稳定。政客们知道这一点，因此 他们为经济增长设定了新目标。你可以实现绿色增长、包容性增长、 智能、弹性、均衡的增长。只要你选择增长，就可以选择 任何你想要的未来。
06:36
I think it's time to choose a higher ambition, a far bigger one, because humanity's 21st century challenge is clear: to meet the needs of all people within the means of this extraordinary, unique, living planet so that we and the rest of nature can thrive.
我认为，是时候选择一个 更高、更大的目标了，因为人类在21世纪的 挑战是明确的： 在这个非凡的、独特的、 鲜活的星球上，满足每一个人的需要，这样我们和自然界的 其他部分才能共同繁荣。
06:56
Progress on this goal isn't going to be measured with the metric of money. We need a dashboard of indicators. And when I sat down to try and draw a picture of what that might look like, strange though this is going to sound, it came out looking like a doughnut. I know, I'm sorry, but let me introduce you to the one doughnut that might actually turn out to be good for us. So imagine humanity's resource use radiating out from the middle. That hole in the middle is a place where people are falling short on life's essentials. They don't have the food, health care, education, political voice, housing that every person needs for a life of dignity and opportunity. We want to get everybody out of the hole, over the social foundation and into that green doughnut itself. But, and it's a big but, we cannot let our collective resource use overshoot that outer circle, the ecological ceiling, because there we put so much pressure on this extraordinary planet that we begin to kick it out of kilter. We cause climate breakdown, we acidify the oceans, a hole in the ozone layer, pushing ourselves beyond the planetary boundaries of the life-supporting systems that have for the last 11,000 years made earth such a benevolent home to humanity.
这一目标的进展不会用 金钱标准来衡量。我们需要一个指示板。当我坐下来试着画出它的样子时，虽然听起来很奇怪，但它看起来很像甜甜圈。我知道（这是个不太严肃的描述），抱歉，但是让我来介绍一下这个 可能会对我们有好处的甜甜圈。想象一下人类的资源利用 从中间向外加大。中间的那个洞是 人们缺乏生活必需品的地方。他们没有食物、医疗、教育、 政治话语权、住房，这些为了有尊严有机会的生存，每个人都需要的东西。我们想让每个人都从这个洞中 走出来，迈过社会基础线，进入绿色甜甜圈里面。但是，这是个很严肃的但是，不能让总的资源利用超出外圈，即生态上限，因为上限表示，我们给这个 非凡的星球施加了太多压力，以至于开始破坏它的平衡了。我们造成了气候的破坏，我们使海洋酸化，臭氧层上出现了一个洞，把我们自己推出了 生命维持系统的星球边界之外，而正是这个系统，用过去的11000年，让地球成为了人类的美好家园。
08:13
So this double-sided challenge to meet the needs of all within the means of the planet, it invites a new shape of progress, no longer this ever-rising line of growth, but a sweet spot for humanity, thriving in dynamic balance between the foundation and the ceiling. And I was really struck once I'd drawn this picture to realize that the symbol of well-being in many ancient cultures reflects this very same sense of dynamic balance, from the Maori Takarangi to the Taoist Yin Yang, the Buddhist endless knot, the Celtic double spiral.
因此，要在星球所能承受的范围内 满足地球上所有人的需要，这一双重挑战，要求出现一种新的发展形态，不再是这种持续上升的增长线，而是人类生存的最佳点，在基础线与上限之间的 动态平衡中蓬勃发展。我一画出这幅画就恍然大悟，因为在许多古代文化中，幸福的象征符号 反映了同样的动态平衡感，从毛利人的高兰吉 到道教的阴阳、佛教的无止尽结，凯尔特人的双螺旋。
08:48
So can we find this dynamic balance in the 21st century? Well, that's a key question, because as these red wedges show, right now we are far from balanced, falling short and overshooting at the same time. Look in that hole, you can see that millions or billions of people worldwide still fall short on their most basic of needs. And yet, we've already overshot at least four of these planetary boundaries, risking irreversible impact of climate breakdown and ecosystem collapse. This is the state of humanity and our planetary home. We, the people of the early 21st century, this is our selfie.
那么，我们能否在21世纪 找到这种动态平衡呢? 这是个关键问题，因为正如这些红色楔形所示，我们现在远没有达到平衡，同时存在短缺和过量。看看这个洞，你会发现世界上 数百万或数十亿人 仍然在最基本需求方面存在短缺。然而，星球边界中的至少 四个方面已经出现了过量，导致面临不可逆转的影响，包括气候失调和 生态系统崩溃。这就是人类以及我们的 星球家园的现状。作为21世纪初的人类，这是我们的自拍照。
09:32
No economist from last century saw this picture, so why would we imagine that their theories would be up for taking on its challenges? We need ideas of our own, because we are the first generation to see this and probably the last with a real chance of turning this story around. You see, 20th century economics assured us that if growth creates inequality, don't try to redistribute, because more growth will even things up again. If growth creates pollution, don't try to regulate, because more growth will clean things up again.
上个世纪的经济学家 都没见过这幅图，那么为什么要假设 他们的理论能应对挑战呢? 我们需要自己的想法，因为我们是看到它的第一代人，可能也是最后一代有机会 扭转这一局面的人。你看，20世纪的经济学向我们 保证，如果增长造成了不平等，不要试图重新分配，因为更多的增长 将会让一切恢复平衡。如果增长造成了污染，不要试图进行监管，也因为 更多的增长将把一切清理干净。
10:01
Except, it turns out, it doesn't, and it won't. We need to create economies that tackle this shortfall and overshoot together, by design. We need economies that are regenerative and distributive by design. You see, we've inherited degenerative industries. We take earth's materials, make them into stuff we want, use it for a while, often only once, and then throw it away, and that is pushing us over planetary boundaries, so we need to bend those arrows around, create economies that work with and within the cycles of the living world, so that resources are never used up but used again and again, economies that run on sunlight, where waste from one process is food for the next.
只是，事实证明，这一断言并没有发生，也不会发生。我们需要创造一个能同时 解决短缺和过量问题的经济，要通过设计来实现。我们需要设计出 可再生和分配的经济。我们已经接手了衰退中的工业。我们拿走地球的原材料，把它变成我们想要的东西，使用一段时间，常常 只用一次，然后扔掉，这种行为正推动我们 超出星球界限，所以我们要让那些箭头拐回来, 创造出在生存环境内 有效且不出界的经济，让资源永远不会耗尽，而是一次又一次地被反复使用，用阳光做动力运行的经济, 一个过程的废料就是 下一个过程的原料。
10:44
And this kind of regenerative design is popping up everywhere. Over a hundred cities worldwide, from Quito to Oslo, from Harare to Hobart, already generate more than 70 percent of their electricity from sun, wind and waves. Cities like London, Glasgow, Amsterdam are pioneering circular city design, finding ways to turn the waste from one urban process into food for the next. And from Tigray, Ethiopia to Queensland, Australia, farmers and foresters are regenerating once-barren landscapes so that it teems with life again.
这种可再生设计 正如雨后春笋般在各处涌现。从基多到奥斯陆，从哈拉雷到霍巴特，全球一百多个城市 已经有70%以上的电力 来自太阳、风和海浪。像伦敦、格拉斯哥、阿姆斯特丹 这样的城市都是循环城市设计的先驱，他们想办法把一个过程的城市废料 变成下一个过程的原料。从埃塞俄比亚的提格雷，到澳大利亚的昆士兰，农民和林业工人正在恢复 曾经贫瘠的土地，让它再次充满生机。
11:21
But as well as being regenerative by design, our economies must be distributive by design, and we've got unprecedented opportunities for making that happen, because 20th-century centralized technologies, institutions, concentrated wealth, knowledge and power in few hands. This century, we can design our technologies and institutions to distribute wealth, knowledge and empowerment to many. Instead of fossil fuel energy and large-scale manufacturing, we've got renewable energy networks, digital platforms and 3D printing. 200 years of corporate control of intellectual property is being upended by the bottom-up, open-source, peer-to-peer knowledge commons. And corporations that still pursue maximum rate of return for their shareholders, well they suddenly look rather out of date next to social enterprises that are designed to generate multiple forms of value and share it with those throughout their networks. If we can harness today's technologies, from AI to blockchain to the Internet of Things to material science, if we can harness these in service of distributive design, we can ensure that health care, education, finance, energy, political voice reaches and empowers those people who need it most. You see, regenerative and distributive design create extraordinary opportunities for the 21st-century economy.
但是，除了有意实现再生之外，我们的经济也必须有意实现分配，我们已具备前所未有的机会 去实现这一目标，因为20世纪的中心化技术、 制度，把财富、知识和权力 集中在了少数人手中。本世纪，我们可以 设计我们的技术和制度，将财富、知识和权力分配给许多人。不需要化石燃料能源和大规模制造，我们有可再生能源网络、 数字平台和3D打印。200年来，企业对知识产权的控制 正被自下而上的、开源的、 端对端知识共享所颠覆。而那些仍在为股东追求 回报率最大化的公司，他们突然之间就显得有些过时了，新的社会企业设计成能够 产生多种形式的价值，被并将其与整个网络共享。如果我们能够利用今天的技术，从人工智能到区块链，到物联网，再到材料科学，如果我们能够利用这些服务 进行可分配设计，就能确保医疗、教育、金融、 能源、政治话语权，能被给予那些最需要它们的人。显然，可再生且可分配的设计 为21世纪的经济 创造了非凡的机会。
12:52
So where does this leave Rostow's airplane ride? Well, for some it still carries the hope of endless green growth, the idea that thanks to dematerialization, exponential GDP growth can go on forever while resource use keeps falling. But look at the data. This is a flight of fancy. Yes, we need to dematerialize our economies, but this dependency on unending growth cannot be decoupled from resource use on anything like the scale required to bring us safely back within planetary boundaries.
那么这对罗斯托的 飞机之旅有什么影响呢? 对一些人来说，它仍然承载着 无限的绿色增长的希望，这种想法认为，由于非物质化，GDP的指数级增长可以永远 持续下去，资源消耗可以不断减少。但是对比一下数据。这只是异想天开罢了。是的，我们需要让经济去物质化，但是，对无止境增长的依赖 离不开对资源的利用，这种资源利用与把我们 安全带回地球边界内 所需要的规模一样。
13:24
I know this way of thinking about growth is unfamiliar, because growth is good, no? We want our children to grow, our gardens to grow. Yes, look to nature and growth is a wonderful, healthy source of life. It's a phase, but many economies like Ethiopia and Nepal today may be in that phase. Their economies are growing at seven percent a year. But look again to nature, because from your children's feet to the Amazon forest, nothing in nature grows forever. Things grow, and they grow up and they mature, and it's only by doing so that they can thrive for a very long time. We already know this. If I told you my friend went to the doctor who told her she had a growth that feels very different, because we intuitively understand that when something tries to grow forever within a healthy, living, thriving system, it's a threat to the health of the whole. So why would we imagine that our economies would be the one system that could buck this trend and succeed by growing forever? We urgently need financial, political and social innovations that enable us to overcome this structural dependency on growth, so that we can instead focus on thriving and balance within the social and the ecological boundaries of the doughnut.
我知道这种思考增长的 方式听起来很陌生，因为增长是好事，不是吗? 我们希望我们的孩子成长，我们的花园成长。是的，在大自然中，成长是 美妙、健康的生命源泉。它是一个阶段，但许多经济体，比如今天的埃塞俄比亚和尼泊尔，可能正处于这个阶段。他们的经济正在 以每年7%的速度增长。但是再看看大自然，因为从你孩子的小脚丫。脚到亚马逊的森林，自然界中没有什么东西 是永远生长下去的。事物生长，长大，然后成熟，只有这样，它们才能繁荣很长一段时间。我们还知道一点。如果我告诉你，我的朋友去看医生，医生告诉她，身体里长了东西，那就是完全另一回事了，因为我们凭直觉就知道，当某种东西 试图在健康、活泼、旺盛的 体系中永远生长时，它就会威胁到整个体系的健康。那么，我们为什么会认为，我们的经济将是 一个能够改变这一规律 并永远增长的系统呢? 我们迫切需要金融、政治和社会创新，使我们能够克服对增长的结构性依赖，以便我们能够把重点放在甜甜圈的 社会和生态边界内的繁荣与平衡上。
14:54
And if the mere idea of boundaries makes you feel, well, bounded, think again. Because the world's most ingenious people turn boundaries into the source of their creativity. From Mozart on his five-octave piano Jimi Hendrix on his six-string guitar, Serena Williams on a tennis court, it's boundaries that unleash our potential. And the doughnut's boundaries unleash the potential for humanity to thrive with boundless creativity, participation, belonging and meaning.
如果仅仅是边界的概念 就让你觉得受到限制，再仔细想一想。因为世界上最聪明的人 都把界限变成了他们创造力的源泉。从莫扎特的五音钢琴，吉米 · 亨德里克斯的六弦吉他，到塞雷娜 · 威廉姆斯的网球场，是边界激发了我们的潜能。甜甜圈的边界释放了人类的潜力，让人类在无限的创造力、参与、 归属感和意义下茁壮成长。
15:33
It's going to take all the ingenuity that we have got to get there, so bring it on.
它需要我们投入 全部的聪明才智去实现，所以，全力以赴吧。
15:39
Thank you.
谢谢。
15:40
(Applause)
（掌声）
