演讲MP3+双语文稿:如何为非洲带来廉价的、可持续的电力
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    听力课堂TED音频栏目主要包括TED演讲的音频MP3及中英双语文稿,供各位英语爱好者学习使用。本文主要内容为演讲MP3+双语文稿:如何为非洲带来廉价的、可持续的电力,希望你会喜欢!

    【演讲者及介绍】Rose M.Mutiso

    作为能源促进增长中心的研究主任,能源科学家Rose M. Mutiso与全球专家网络合作,在非洲和亚洲各地寻找解决能源短缺问题的办法。她也是Mawazo研究所的共同创始人之一,帮助非洲妇女成为学者和思想领袖。

    【演讲主题】如何为非洲带来负担得起的、可持续的电力

    How to bring affordable, sustainable electricity to Africa

    【中英文字幕】

    翻译者Wanting Zhong 校对者Yihong Tang

    00:13

    So right now, nearly one billion people globally don't have access to electricity in their homes. And in sub-Saharan Africa, more than half of the population remain in the dark.

    如今全球有近 10 亿人 家中缺乏电力供应。 而在撒哈拉以南非洲, 超过半数的人口仍生活在黑暗之中。

    00:25

    So you probably all know this image from NASA. There's a name for this darkness. It's called "energy poverty," and it has massive implications for economic development and social well-being. One unique aspect of the energy poverty problem in sub-Saharan Africa -- and by the way, in this talk when I "energy," I mean "electricity" -- one thing that's unique about it is there isn't much legacy infrastructure already in place in many countries of the region. So, for example, according to 2015 data, the total installed electricity capacity in sub-Saharan Africa is only about 100 gigawatts. That's similar to that of the UK.

    你们或许都见过 NASA 的这张照片。 这片黑暗有一个名字, 叫做“能源贫困”, 它对经济发展与社会福祉 有深远的影响。 撒哈拉以南非洲的能源贫困问题 有一点十分独特—— 另外说明一下,在本次演讲中 我所说的“能源”指的是“电力”—— 关于能源贫困问题的 一个独特方面是, 这个地区的很多国家 缺少已经建好 的遗留基础设施。 举个例子,根据 2015 年的数据, 撒哈拉以南非洲的总装机容量 只有约 100 吉瓦(GW), 与英国的总装机容量差不多。

    01:02

    So this actually presents a unique opportunity to build an energy system in the 21st century almost from scratch. The question is: How do you do that? We could look back to the past and replicate the ways in which we've managed to bring stable, affordable electricity to a big part of the world's population. But we all know that that has some well-known terrible side effects, such as pollution and climate change, in addition to being costly and inefficient. With Africa's population set to quadruple by the end of the century, this is not a theoretical question. Africa needs a lot of energy, and it needs it fast, because its population is booming and its economy needs to develop.

    这其实提供了一个独特的机会, 让我们能够在21世纪 几乎从零开始 构建一个能源系统。 问题在于:怎样才能达成这个目标呢? 我们可以回首过去, 效仿以前的做法, 这些办法曾经将稳定、廉价的电力 带给世界上大多数人口。 但我们都知道,过去的做法 有一些众所周知的可怕的副作用, 比如环境污染和气候变化, 以及高昂的成本与低下的效率。 随着非洲的人口预计 在本世纪末增加四倍, 我们面对的并非 只是理论上的问题。 非洲需要大量能源, 这个需求迫在眉睫, 因为非洲的人口正在激增, 非洲的经济需要发展。

    01:44

    So for most countries, the general trajectory of electrification has been as follows. First, large-scale grid infrastructure is put in place, usually with significant public investment. That infrastructure then powers productive centers, such as factories, agricultural mechanization, commercial enterprises and the like. And this then stimulates economic growth, creating jobs, raising incomes and producing a virtuous cycle that helps more people afford more appliances, which then creates residential demand for electricity.

    对大部分国家来说, 电气化的一般轨迹 是这样的: 首先,铺设好大型电网基础设施, 这一般需要大量公共投资。 那些基础设施随后 为生产中心供能, 比如工厂、机械化农业、 商业企业等等。 这得以刺激经济增长, 创造就业,提高收入, 建立起一个能 帮助更多人 购置电器的良性循环, 从而创造居民对电力的需求。

    02:15

    But in sub-Saharan Africa, despite decades of energy projects, we haven't really seen these benefits. The energy projects have often been characterized by waste, corruption and inefficiency; our rural electrification rates are really low, and our urban rates could be better; the reliability of our electricity is terrible; and we have some of the highest electricity prices in the whole world. And on top of all of this, we are now facing the impacts of the growing climate catastrophe head-on. So Africa will need to find a different path.

    但在撒哈拉以南非洲, 尽管能源项目开展了数十年, 我们并没有观察到这些效益。 这些能源项目常常意味着污染、 腐败、效率低下; 我们的农村电气化普及率非常低, 城市的电气化普及率 也有提升的空间; 我们的电力可靠性很糟糕; 我们的电费高居全世界的榜首。 在此之上, 我们如今正在直面日渐严重 的气候灾难带来的影响。 非洲需要寻求一条不同的道路。

    02:49

    And, as it turns out, we are now witnessing some pretty exciting disruption in the African energy space. This new path is called off-grid solar, and it's enabled by cheap solar panels, advances in LED and battery technology, and combined with innovative business models. So these off-grid solar products typically range from a single light to home system kits that can charge phones, power a television or run a fan.

    而事实证明,我们现在正在见证 非洲能源市场中 一些激动人心的变革。 这条崭新的道路叫做“离网太阳能”, 它的诞生结合了廉价太阳能板, LED 和电池科技的发展, 以及创新性的商业模型。 这些离网太阳能产品多种多样, 从简单的一盏灯, 到能够给手机充电、 给电视供能、 让电扇运转的居家系统组件。

    03:15

    I want to be clear: off-grid solar is a big deal in Africa. I have worked in the sector for years, and these products are enabling us to extend basic energy services to some of the world's poorest, raising their quality of life. This is a very good and a very important thing. However, off-grid solar will not solve energy poverty in Africa, and for that matter, neither will a top-down effort to connect every unserved household to the grid. See, I'm not here to rehash that played-out "on-versus-off-grid" or "old-versus-new" debate. Instead, I believe that our inability to grapple with and truly address energy poverty in Africa stems from three main sources.

    我想强调的是: 离网太阳能在非洲非常重要。 我在这个领域工作多年, 而这些产品能让我们 把基本的能源服务 送到世界上最为贫穷的人们手中, 提升了他们的生活质量。 这是件很好、很重要的事情。 但是,离网太阳能并不能解决 非洲能源贫困的问题。 就这一点来说, 自上而下、将每一个未通电的家庭 连接到电网上的尝试, 也不能解决这个问题。 我并不想老调重谈地 再议关于“入网还是离网” 或者“老技术还是新技术”的争论。 反之, 我相信,我们之所以 无法掌控并真正解决 非洲的资源贫困问题, 其主要原因有三点。

    03:56

    First, we don't really have a clear understanding of what energy poverty is, or how deep it goes.

    第一,我们对能源贫困是什么, 以及其扎根之深度 并没有一个清楚的认知。

    04:03

    Second, we are avoiding complex systemic issues and prefer quick fixes.

    第二,我们在逃避 复杂的体系上的问题, 而倾向于快速的权宜之计。

    04:07

    And third, we are misdirecting concerns about climate change. Combined, these three mistakes are leading us to impose a Western debate on the future of energy and falling back on paternalistic attitudes towards Africa.

    第三,我们在误导 对于气候变化的关注。 这三个错误相结合, 导致我们对能源的未来 施加了西式的辩论, 重蹈了对非洲家长式态度的覆辙。

    04:20

    So let me try and unpack these three questions. First, what exactly is energy poverty? The main energy poverty targeted indicator is enshrined in the UN's Seventh Sustainable Development Goal, or SDG 7. It calls for 100 percent of the world's population to have access to electricity by the year 2030. This binary threshold, however, ignores the quality, reliability or utility of the power, though indicators are currently being developed that will try and capture these things.

    那么,请让我试图理清这三个问题。 首先,能源贫困到底是什么? 能源贫困的主要针对性指标 记载于联合国的第七个 可持续发展目标, 即 SDG 7 之中。 这个目标呼吁,到 2030 年, 确保世界上所有人 都能获得电力。 然而,这个二元化的门槛 忽略了能源的质量、 可靠性和效用, 不过目前我们正在研发能够 尝试捕捉这些要点的指标。

    04:47

    However, the question of when a household is considered "connected" is not quite clear-cut. So, for example, last year the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi declared all of the villages in India electrified, the criteria for electrification being a transformer in every village plus its public centers and 10 percent -- 10 percent -- of its households connected. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency, which tracks progress against SDG 7, defines energy access as 50 kilowatt hours per person per year. That's enough to power some light bulbs and charge a phone, perhaps run a low-watt TV or fan for a few hours a day. Now, providing entry-level access is an important first step, but let's not romanticize the situation. By any standard, a few lights and not much else is still living in energy poverty. And what's more, these energy poverty indicators and targets cover only residential use. And yet, households account for just about one quarter of the world's electricity consumption. That's because most of our power is used in industries and for commerce.

    但是,一家住户何时能被视作“通电” 的评判标准并不明确。 举个例子,印度总理纳伦德拉·莫迪 在去年宣布,印度境内 全部村庄都通了电, 而电气化的标准是 每个村庄配备一座变电站, 加上它的公共中心, 和百分之十——没错, 百分之十——的居民能够通电。 与此同时, 负责跟踪 SDG 7 进度的国际能源署 将能源获取的标准定义为 每人每年 50 度电。 50 度电足够点亮几盏灯泡, 给一台手机充电, 大概每天也能让 低功耗电视或者风扇运行几个小时。 提供入门级别的电力获取 是重要的第一步, 但是我们还是不要 过于美化这种状况。 无论以何种标准来看, 如果只能点亮几盏灯, 仍然相当于生活在能源贫困之中。 更有甚者, 这些能源贫困的指标与目标 涵盖的仅仅是居民用电。 然而,居家用电仅占世界耗电总量 的四分之一。 这是因为我们大部分的电力 都用在工业与商贸上。

    05:57

    Which brings me to my main point: countries cannot grow out of poverty without access to abundant, affordable and reliable electricity to power these productive centers, or what I call "Energy for Growth." As you can see from this graph, there's simply no such thing as a low-energy, high-income country. It doesn't exist. And yet, three billion people in the world currently live in countries without reliable, affordable electricity -- not just to power their homes but also their factories, their office buildings, their data centers and other economic activities. Merely electrifying households and microenterprises cannot solve this deeper energy poverty. To solve energy poverty, we need to deliver reliable, affordable electricity at scale, to power economy-wide job creation and income growth.

    这也引出了我的主要论点: 国家想要脱离贫困, 不能没有能驱动各个生产中心 的丰富的、廉价的、可靠的电力, 我将其称为“发展用能源”。 从这幅图表可以看出, 根本没有所谓的 低能耗、高收入国家。 这种国家并不存在。 然而,世界上有 30 亿人口 目前居住的国家缺乏 可靠的、廉价的电力—— 他们不仅无法为家里供电, 也无法为工厂, 办公楼,数据中心, 以及其他经济活动 提供电力支持。 仅仅为家庭和 微型企业供电根本无法解决 这个更深层的能源贫困问题。 为了解决能源贫困问题, 我们需要大规模地输送 可靠的、廉价的电力, 从而为整个社会工作岗位的创造 与收入增长提供动力。

    06:47

    This need, however, bumps against an emerging narrative that, faced with climate change, we all need to transition from large, centralized power systems to small-scale distributed power. The growth of off-grid solar in Africa -- and let me repeat, off-grid solar is a good thing -- but that growth fits nicely into this narrative and has led to those claims that Africa is leapfrogging the old ways of energy and building its power system from the ground up, one solar panel at a time.

    但是,这个需求却和 一个渐渐浮现的观点产生了矛盾。 这个观点声称, 面对当今的气候变化, 我们都需要实现 从大型、集中式能源系统 到小型、分散式能源的转型。 非洲的离网太阳能正在发展—— 我重申一次, 离网太阳能是好东西—— 但是这种发展很好地 契合了这一观点, 从而导致有人声称,非洲正在绕过 传统能源范式进行跨越式发展, 从零开始、一块一块太阳能板地 打造自己的能源系统。

    07:16

    It's a nice, solicitous narrative, but also quite naïve. Like many narratives of technological disruption, often inspired by Silicon Valley, it takes for granted the existing systems that underpin all of this transformation. You see, when it comes to innovating and energy, the West is working around the edges of a system that is tried and tested. And so all the sexy stuff -- the rooftop solar, the smart household devices, the electric vehicles -- all of this is built on top of a massive and absolutely essential grid, which itself exists within a proven governance framework. Even the most advanced countries in the world don't have an example of an energy system that is all edges and no center at scale.

    这是一个好听的、诱人的说法, 但同时也很天真。 这个说法和很多 关于受硅谷启发所诞生 的颠覆性科技的叙述一样, 这种说法同样认为,作为这些转型的基础, 这些现有系统的存在是理所当然的。 当谈到创新与能源时, 西方正在研究一个尝试过 和测试过的体系的边缘。 所有那些吸引眼球的东西—— 屋顶太阳能电池, 智能居家设备,电动汽车—— 这些都建立在一张庞大的、 至关重要的电网之上, 这张电网本身也置身于一个 经过证明的管理框架之中。 即使是世界上最先进的国家, 也没有一个只有边缘、没有中心的 大型能源系统的案例。

    08:03

    So ultimately, no approach -- be it centralized or distributed, renewable or fossil-based -- can succeed in solving energy poverty without finding a way to deliver reliable, affordable electricity to Africa's emerging industrial and commercial sectors. So, it's not just lights in every rural home. It's power for Africa's cities that are growing fast and increasingly full of young, capable people in desperate need of a job. This in turn will require significant interconnectivity and economies of scale, making a robust and modern grid a crucial piece of any energy poverty solution.

    归根结底, 不管是集中式还是分散式系统、 可再生还是化石能源, 如果找不到方法将 可靠、廉价的电力 输送到非洲萌芽的工业与商业领域, 非洲的能源贫困依然无解。 所以,我们并不只是要 点亮每一户农村家庭。 我们要为非洲 快速发展的城市提供能源, 这些城市愈发充斥着 年轻有为的人们, 他们迫切需要工作。 这进而又需要强大的互联 以及规模经济, 使得稳定而现代化的电网 成为任何能源贫困解决方案 不可或缺的一部分。

    08:43

    So, our second mistake is falling for the allure of the quick fix. You see, energy poverty exists within a complex socioeconomic and political context. And part of the appeal of new electrification models such as off-grid solar, for example, is they can often bypass the glacial pace and inefficiency of government. See, with small systems you can skip the bureaucracies and the utilities and sell directly to customers. But to confront energy poverty, you cannot ignore governments, you cannot ignore institutions, you cannot ignore the many players involved in making, moving and using electricity at scale, which is a way to say that when it comes to providing energy for growth, it's not just about innovating the technology, it's about the slow and hard work of improving governance, institutions and the broader macroenvironment.

    我们的第二个错误是, 盲目相信快速解决方案。 能源贫困是存在于 一个复杂的社会经济 与政治背景下的。 诸如离网太阳能之类的 新型电气化模型的 一部分吸引力在于, 它们大多能绕过 政府的滞缓节奏与低下效能。 要是使用小型系统, 你就能跳过官僚机构与程序, 直接与顾客进行交易。 但是要想攻克能源贫困, 你不能忽略政府, 你不能忽略制度, 你不能忽略大规模生产、 传输和使用电力时 涉及到的多方参与者。 换句话说, 当我们要为发展供能时, 我们不仅仅要考虑科技上的革新, 还要面对改善治理、制度 与更广阔的宏观环境时 所要付出的漫长与艰苦的努力。

    09:37

    OK, so this is all good and nice, you say. But what about climate change? How do we ensure a high-energy future for everyone while also curbing our emissions? Well, we'll have to make some complex tradeoffs, but I believe that a high-energy future for Africa is not mutually exclusive to a low-carbon future. And make no mistake: the world cannot expect Africa to remain in energy poverty because of climate change.

    你可能会说, 这一切听上去都很棒。 但关于气候变化又该怎么办? 我们如何确保在未来, 每个人都享有充足能源 的同时减少排放? 我们必须要做出一些复杂的妥协, 但我相信,对非洲来说 一个能源充足的未来 和一个低碳的未来并不矛盾。 毫无疑问: 世界不能指望非洲 因为气候变化 就一直陷于能源贫困之中。

    10:04

    (Applause)

    (掌声)

    10:11

    Actually, the facts show that the opposite is true. Energy will be essential for Africa to adapt to climate change and build resilience. You see, rising temperatures will mean increased demand for space cooling and cold storage. Declining water tables will mean increased pumped irrigation. And extreme weather and rising sea levels will require a significant expansion and reinforcement of our infrastructure. These are all energy-intensive activities. So balancing climate change and Africa's pressing need to transition to a high-energy future will be tough. But doing so is nonnegotiable; we will have to find a way. The first step is broadening the terms of the debate away from this either-or framing. And we also must stop romanticizing solutions that distract us from the core challenges.

    实际上,事实表明, 情况恰好相反。 能源对于非洲适应环境变化、 提高抵御能力 有至关重要的作用。 气温升高意味着 对于制冷和冷藏 的需求增加。 地下水减少意味着 抽水灌溉增加。 极端的天气与上升的海平面 将要求我们大幅扩建 以及加固我们的基础设施。 这些都是高能耗的作业。 因此,在气候变化 和非洲向能源充足的未来 转化的迫切需求之间寻找平衡, 将会十分艰巨。 但是否要这样做也是不容磋商的; 我们必须找到办法。 第一步是拓宽辩论的视角, 从这种非此即彼 的局限中解放出来。 另外,一些解决方案会转移 我们对核心挑战的注意力, 我们也必须停止 对这些方案的美化。

    11:01

    And let's not also forget that Africa is endowed with vast natural resources, including significant renewable potential. For example, in Kenya, where I'm from, geothermal power accounts for half of our electricity generation, and with hydro being the other major source, we are already mainly powered by renewable energy. We also just brought online Africa's largest wind farm and East Africa's biggest solar facility.

    我们也不能忘记, 非洲拥有得天独厚的丰富自然资源, 其中包含了可观的可再生潜能。 比如说,在我的祖国肯尼亚, 有一半的电能来源于地热能, 而水能则是另一个主要电力来源, 所以我们的主要电力来源 已经是可再生能源了。 我们也刚刚开始运行 非洲最大的风力发电厂, 以及东非最大的太阳能发电设施。

    11:26

    (Applause)

    (掌声)

    11:30

    In addition, new technology means that we can now run and design our power systems and use energy more efficiently than ever, doing more with less. Energy efficiency will be an important tool in the fight against climate change.

    此外, 新的技术也意味着 我们现在可以以更高的效率 运行和设计我们的能源系统 以及使用我们的能源, 达到事半功倍的效果。 能源效率将会是 我们与气候变化 作斗争的重要工具。

    11:46

    So in closing, I'd just like to say that Africa is a real place with real people, navigating complex challenges and major transitions, just like any other region of the world.

    那么在最后,我想说的是, 非洲是一个真实的地方,有真实的人民, 她正在应对复杂的挑战和重大的转变, 正如世界任何其他地方一样。

    11:56

    (Applause)

    (掌声)

    12:02

    And while each country and each region has its social, economic and political quirks, the physics of electricity are the same everywhere.

    虽然每个国家、每个地区 都有其独有的社会、经济 与政治特色, 电力的物理原理 在任何地方都是不变的。

    12:10

    (Laughter) (Applause)

    (笑声)(掌声)

    12:14

    And the energy needs of our economies are just as intensive as those of any other economy.

    而我们的经济发展对能源的需求 和任何其它经济体一样强烈。

    12:21

    So, the expansion of household electrification through a mix of on- and off-grid solutions has had an incredible impact in Africa. But they are nowhere near sufficient for solving energy poverty. To solve energy poverty, we need generation of electricity from diverse sources at scale and modern grids to power a high-energy future, in which Africans can enjoy modern living standards and well-paying jobs. Africans deserve this, and with one of every four people in the world projected to be African by the year 2100, the planet needs it.

    家庭电气化的普及 通过网内外解决方案的组合 对非洲起到了难以置信的影响。 但它们还远远不足以 解决能源贫困的难题。 要想克服能源贫困, 我们需要大规模、多样化的发电来源 和现代化的电网, 为能量充足的未来提供动力, 让非洲人享受现代生活水平 和高薪工作。 非洲值得拥有这些; 而到了 2100 年时, 世界上每四个人中 将有一人来自非洲, 届时,我们的星球也需要它。

    12:54

    Thank you.

    谢谢。

    12:55

    (Applause)

    (掌声)

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