Day 30 The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago

The following appeared as a recommendation by a committee planning a ten-year budget for the city of Calatrava.

“The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago. Thus the number of students enrolled in our public schools will soon decrease dramatically, and we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade. At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities. As a result, we will have sufficient money to fund city facilities and programs used primarily by adults, since we can expect the adult population of the city to increase.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

五问：

（1）“The birthrate in our city is declining: in fact, last year's birthrate was only one-half that of five years ago”是事实，“we can safely reduce the funds budgeted for education during the next decade”和“At the same time, we can reduce funding for athletic playing fields and other recreational facilities”是结论，值得反驳吗？

（2）出生率的降低一定会影响公立学校的入学人数吗？公立学校的入学人数受哪些因素影响？除了出生率之外，你能再罗列出一两个吗？并且请详细地说说这些因素会如何影响公立学校的入学人数。例如：公立学校的教学质量、学费也会影响入学人数，教育质量高、学费比私立学校低，入学人数也会相应增加。

（3）减少在教育方面的支出是不是一个合理的选择？特别是要将这一政策延续到下一个十年——这个年限是合适的吗？有哪些因素将会影响这一年限的合理性？例如，十年内人口出生率又增长了。

（4）是否应该因为出生率降低而减少对体育及娱乐活动的支持力度？除了出生率之外，还有哪些因素会影响我们对于体育活动及娱乐活动的支持？例如，该市出了很多奥运冠军，或该市老年人口特别多等。

（5）出生率降低就意味着成年人口数量一定会增加吗？人口死亡率呢？即使成年人口数量增加了，就一定要增加成年人使用的城市设施和项目吗？也许现有的设施已经足够用了。