Day 38 Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat

The following appeared in a memo from the new vice president of Sartorian, a company that manufactures men's clothing.

“Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase.”

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

五问：

（1）“Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier”“we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat”和“the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years”是事实，“we should resume production”是结论，值得被反驳吗？

（2）一个原料供应商就一定是稳定的吗？原料供应是否稳定由哪些因素决定？你能具体地说一说吗？例如：供应商的产品质量、供货能力和运输条件等。

（3）是否生产某种产品，除了与原料的可获得性相关之外，还应该由哪些关键因素决定？例如：市场需求如何（也许在五年后的今天，这种毛外套已经不受欢迎了），成本利润如何等。

（4）我们的工厂以及我们最大的竞争者不生产毛外套，就意味着市场上没有毛外套了吗？该市场是否可能已经被其他企业所占领，市场空间已经不大？

（5）其他的衣服种类涨价，就意味着毛外套涨价也是合理的吗？集体具备的特点，个体就一定会具备吗？消费者一定会接受涨价后的毛外套吗？利润由哪些因素决定？销售量是否只是决定利润额的诸多要素之一？是否可能五年后的工资水平提高了，人工成本更高了，利润并不会增加。