分析师评谷歌避走香港之举
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    Google's decision to redirect its censored Chinese site to an unfiltered Chinese-language version of its service hosted in Hong Kong, appeared to make good on the Web giant's threat to stop open the floodgates on Chinese search results.
    谷歌决定将其受审查的中国网站导向位于香港的未经过滤的中文服务,这一决定似乎实现了该公司停止对中文搜索结果进行审查过滤的诺言。

    It also seems to be continuing to weigh a bit on shares Tuesday. Here's a smattering of some of the more thoughtful comments from analysts we've read on the topic.
    看起来这个决定周二还继续令谷歌的股价承压。以下是一些较具深度的分析师评论:

    Broadpoint.AmTech: 'Investor sentiment and the longer-term potential of China will be impacted by Google's decision to not censor results. The headline risk will continue around this issue as investors will now monitor the Chinese government's response to this change. As we state above, we expect Google.com.hk to be blocked at least as forcefully as Google.com itself has been blocked historically, and there is a chance that blocks will be more aggressive for Google.com.hk and all Google sites in the future.'
    产业研究机构Broadpoint AmTech:中国的投资者人气和长期潜力将受到谷歌停止审查搜索结果决定的影响。围绕这一事件的首要风险还将继续,因投资者现在会密切关注中国政府对这一变化的反应。如前所述,我们预计Google.com.hk会遭遇屏蔽,力度至少与Google.com历史上曾经遭遇过的屏蔽一样,而且将来Google.com.hk和所有Google站点还可能遭到更大力度的屏蔽。

    Bank of America Merrill Lynch: 'It is now Beijing's move, however, we suspect a measured response of some kind which could limit Google's operations in China. On a positive note, Google should get some political goodwill from this move, and we continue to view Google as well positioned to benefit from a global economic recovery with margin upside opportunity to offset any losses from China.'
    美国银行/美林(Bank of America Merrill Lynch):现在轮到北京方面走下一步了,不过我们猜测北京方面会拿出某种经过深思熟虑的反应,可能限制谷歌在华运营。往好的方面说,谷歌这次的举动可能获得政治上的好意,而且我们依然认为谷歌有很好的定位,将从全球经济复苏中获益,有机会实现利润的增长,从而抵消在中国的损失。

    CLSA: 'Baidu will be the immediate beneficiary of Google exiting China as it is the only operator that can provide comparable services. Advertisers generally like Baidu's new advertising system, Phoenix Nest, which enables 'Broad March'. Advertiser links still show up, even if users input related keywords. Ad agencies estimate that about 30% of Google's ad budget may go immediately to Baidu. Ad agencies will also try to use soso.com and sogou.com as they do not want a single operator to take the entire market share.'
    里昂证券(CLSA):百度将成为谷歌退出中国的直接受益者,因为它是唯一一家能够提供可堪与谷歌相比的服务的运营商。广告商们大体上很喜欢百度新的广告系统“凤巢”,后者可以实现“宽泛匹配”。就算用户输入的只是相关的关键词,广告商链接也会显示出来。广告公司预计大约30%的谷歌广告预算会直接落入百度手中。广告公司还会试图利用腾讯旗下搜搜网(soso.com)和搜狐的搜狗(sogou.com),因为他们不希望百度一家独大。

    Jefferies: 'Google could decide to participate in China's growth through an equity stake in a local company (a la Yahoo!/Alibaba) or by expanding platforms such as Android and AdSense.'
    投资银行Jefferies:谷歌可能通过持股本土公司(如同雅虎与阿里巴巴)来从中国的发展中分一杯羹,或者是扩大手机操作系统Android和广告系统AdSense等平台。

    Baidu does seem to be benefiting the most Tuesday. Its shares are up nearly 3%. Meanwhile, Google is breaking below its 50-day moving average.
    从周二的情况看,百度确实是受益最大的。其股价上涨近3%。与此同时,谷歌跌破50天交易均价。

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