中国周一支持了更强力的联合国(UN)对朝制裁,本轮制裁将给其顽固的邻国带来经济上的切肤之痛,但不至于导致朝鲜政权崩溃或者显著损害参与中朝跨境贸易的中国大公司利益。
Zhao Tong, a regional expert at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center in Beijing, said the Chinese government’s objective was to block the most extreme measures advocated by US President Donald Trump while also communicating its anger to Kim Jong Un about his regime’s sixth nuclear test, conducted on September 3.
北京清华—卡内基全球政策中心(Carnegie-Tsinghua Center)的地区专家赵通表示,中国政府的目标是阻止美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)扬言的最极端的举措变为现实,同时向金正恩(Kim Jong Un)传达中国对其政权在9月3日进行的第六次核试验的愤怒。
“China prevented a complete cut-off of oil and fuel supplies to North Korea, which could have had deadly economic consequences for the regime,” Mr Zhao said. “But the sanctions now in place will dramatically reduce North Korea’s foreign exchange earnings and have an irreversible impact on its economy.”
“中国阻止了完全切断对朝鲜的石油和燃料供应的局面,那可能对平壤政权造成致命的经济后果,”赵通说,“但现在的制裁方案将大幅减少朝鲜的外汇收入,对其经济造成不可逆转的影响。”
An embargo on North Korean textile exports, coupled with earlier sanctions targeting coal, minerals and seafood, will affect more than 90 per cent of the country’s exports and deprive Mr Kim’s regime of $1.3bn in annual earnings.
禁止朝鲜的纺织品出口,加上之前针对朝鲜的煤炭、矿石和海鲜的制裁,将使朝鲜逾90%的出口受到影响,使金正恩政权每年失去13亿美元的收入。
The sanctions limit the number of North Koreans allowed to work abroad at the current level of about 100,000 people, who repatriate an estimated $500m to their homeland annually. They will also reduce oil and fuel exports to North Korea by about a third, from 8.5m barrels annually to 6m.
制裁把朝鲜劳务输出人员的人数限制在目前的10万人左右,据估计这些劳工每年汇回朝鲜的收入达到5亿美元。制裁还把向朝鲜供应的石油和燃料减少约三分之一,从每年850万桶降低到每年600万桶。
“The sanctions effectively cap North Korea’s development potential and opens the door for further tightening now that oil and fuel are on the table,” said Michael Kovrig at the International Crisis Group.
“这些制裁有效限制了朝鲜的发展潜力,而且既然石油和燃料被摆到了台面上,它也为进一步收紧制裁开启了大门,”国际危机组织(International Crisis Group)的迈克尔•科夫里格(Michael Kovrig)说。
While the squeeze on energy supplies will be keenly felt by Mr Kim, the amounts are inconsequential for state-owned Chinese energy groups that do business with North Korea. China National Petroleum Corp, which helps operate a “friendship pipeline” burrowed under the two countries’ Yalu river border, is a Fortune Global 500 company with more than $260bn in annual revenues.
在金正恩将会真切感受到对朝鲜能源供应挤压的同时,削减的出口量对与朝鲜有业务往来的中国国有能源集团而言无足轻重。帮助运营从两国边境线上的鸭绿江底穿过的中朝“友谊输油管道”的中国石油天然气集团公司(CNPC)是一家《财富》全球500强企业,年收入超过2600亿美元。
“The effect on any large [Chinese] oil company will negligible,” said Lin Boqiang, dean of the China Institute for Energy Studies at Xiamen University. “Exports to North Korean are a drop in the ocean when it comes to the Chinese oil industry. There may be small companies specifically focused on North Korea that would be affected, but they're not worth watching in terms of the overall industry.”
“任何大型(中国)石油公司将受到的影响都可以忽略不计,”厦门大学中国能源政策研究院(China Institute for Energy Studies)院长林伯强说,“对中国的石油行业而言,对朝鲜的出口只是九牛一毛。或许会有一些专注朝鲜市场的小公司受到影响,但就整个行业而言,它们不值得关注。”
Small Chinese traders in Dandong, Hunchun and other border towns already hit by earlier sanctions are bracing themselves for more pain. Last month, traders in Hunchun protested against the ban on North Korean seafood exports.
丹东、珲春和其他边境城镇的一些已经受之前制裁冲击的中国小商贩正准备承受更多的痛苦。上月,珲春的商贩曾抗议针对朝鲜海鲜产品出口的禁令。
On Tuesday one Hunchun seafood importer, who asked not to be named, was ruing the new sanctions’ impact on a North Korean textile factory that she has invested in. “The seafood business is already hopeless,” the trader said. “They call them sanctions against North Korea but the reality is they’re making Chinese people suffer as well.”
周二,一位要求不具名的珲春海鲜进口商对新制裁给她投资的一家朝鲜纺织厂带来的影响感到懊悔。“海鲜业已经没有希望了,”这名商贩说,“它们说那是对朝鲜的制裁,但现实是它们也让中国人受罪。”
In a statement on Tuesday, Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe said the new sanctions demonstrated “the international community’s shared determination that the pressure against North Korea should be raised to an unprecedented new level”.
日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)在周二的声明中表示,最新制裁决议“将对朝施压上升到了一个前所未有的新级别,也将国际社会要求‘北朝鲜必须转变政策’的态度表示得清楚明白”。
In Beijing, a foreign ministry spokesman reiterated China’s position that the sanctions should be followed with “diplomatic solutions and a resumption of the six-party talks”.
在北京,中国外交部的一名发言人重申了中国的立场,称在执行安理会决议的同时,也强调以外交方式解决问题,重启六方会谈。
“The Chinese government thinks that this is a problem between the US and North Korea,” said one Beijing-based foreign policy expert who advises Chinese officials.
“中国政府认为这是美国和朝鲜之间的问题,”北京的一名为中国官员提供建议的外交政策专家说。
“China views its agreement with the new sanctions as a favour to the US and will now expect something in return,” Mr Kovrig said. “North Korea was never an ideal neighbor but China was willing to tolerate it provided it didn’t create too much of a fuss. Beijing’s cost-benefit analysis has clearly changed.”
“中国认为支持新一轮制裁是帮了美国一个忙,现在中国期待美国给出一些回报,”国际危机组织的科夫里格说,“朝鲜从来都不是一个理想的邻居,但中国愿意在朝鲜不闹出太大乱子的情况下容忍它。北京方面的成本效益分析显然发生了变化。”