[00:00.00]New Words
[00:00.88]新单词
[00:01.75]T-bond
[00:02.39]美国长期国库
[00:03.03]bond n.
[00:03.62]债
[00:04.21]appreciate v.
[00:04.82]增值,上
[00:05.43]consequence n.
[00:06.18]后
[00:06.92]prediction n.
[00:07.55]预
[00:08.18]Phrases & Expressions
[00:10.24]futures contract
[00:11.21]期货合
[00:12.17]stock market
[00:12.96]股票市场
[00:13.74]S:How are you getting along with your boss?
[00:15.05]斯：你和你的新老板相处得怎么样?
[00:16.35]M:Mr. Davis? Fine. He's a kind man. You look excited. Any good news?
[00:19.50]迈：戴维斯先生?不错，他人挺好的，你看起来很兴奋，有什么好消息呢?
[00:22.65]S:Yes. Still remember I bought two T-bonds at 79-08 half a month ago?
[00:26.16]斯：是的，你记得我半个月前买了两张美国政府长期国库券的期货合约吗?在70-08水平上?
[00:29.68]M:You mean that two futures contracts? Of course. They had been worrying you for a whole week.
[00:32.85]迈：噢，那两张期货合约，当然记得，它们不是让你紧张了整整一个星期吗?
[00:36.02]S:That week was really terrible. The bonds price kept going down and down until the level of 77-30.
[00:39.82]斯：那个星期可真是焦头烂额。债券价格一直在跌，都跌到了70-30。
[00:43.62]But last week, the price went up and up. Yesterday it has reached 86-18.
[00:46.90]但上周又开始回升，一直在上涨。昨天都涨到86-18的水平了。
[00:50.18]M:86-18? That is almost 12% more than the level where you bought. How much is one T-bond contract?
[00:54.50]迈：86-18?也就是说比你买的时候上扬12%?一张国库券合同面值多少?
[00:58.83]S:$100 000 at 70-08. From 70-08 to 70-09 is $31.25 up and from 70-09 to 70-08 is $31.25 down.
[01:06.56]斯：在70-80水平上，是10 000美元，如果降一个点，损失31.25美元l反之则增加31.25美元。
[01:14.29]M:So from 79-08 to 86-18 means that... h'm, about $10 000 added, right?
[01:18.76]斯：那么从79-08到86-18就意味着，...嗯，差不多增加10 000美元，是吗?
[01:23.23]S:It's actually $14 625.
[01:25.45]迈：实际上是增值14 625美元。
[01:27.67]M:Oh, great. Have you sold them out?
[01:29.34]迈：噢，太棒了。你对冲了吗?
[01:31.01]S:Yes. I did it yesterday.
[01:32.21]斯：是的，昨天我把它们卖出去了。
[01:33.41]M:At 86-18?
[01:34.56]迈：在86-18水平上?
[01:35.71]S:Exactly.
[01:36.47]斯：是的。
[01:37.23]M:Unbelievable! Just two weeks, you've made big money.
[01:39.45]迈：这简直令人难以置信了。才两个星期，你就赚了一大笔钱。
[01:41.67]How can you manage to do that?
[01:42.58]你是怎么做到的呢?
[01:43.50]S:It's just I'm lucky.
[01:44.67]斯：也许只是运气好吧。
[01:45.85]M:It shouldn't be so simple. Tell me, why were you so sure the bonds price would go up?
[01:49.02]迈：肯定没那么简单。告诉我，你怎么那么肯定债券价格就会上涨呢?
[01:52.20]S:You see, there are many ways to techenically analyse the futures market.
[01:54.76]斯：你看、分析期货市场有很多技术性指标。
[01:57.32]One is to analyse the stock market. From the beginning of this year to October,
[02:00.18]其中一个方法是以股票市场为参照分析。从年初一直到十月份，
[02:03.04]the stock market has been in a process of continuous rising of price. Because of overbuying,
[02:06.38]股票市场一直处于上升状态。由于过度买进，
[02:09.72]the shares has been heavily appreciated.
[02:11.49]股票严重超值，
[02:13.25]This surely will lead to the breaking of the market and the end of the two-year rising in the stock market.
[02:16.74]其结果必然是股市的崩溃,从而结束为期两年的股票牛市，
[02:20.23]M:What does that mean to the futures market?
[02:21.77]迈：这和期货市场有什么关系呢?
[02:23.31]S:One of the consequences is that most investors may be afraid they can't bring back their investment and they may shift their money to the bonds.
[02:27.74]斯：股票市场的这种状况导致的结果之一是股票投资者们害怕市场一旦崩溃，他们将无法收回投资，因此将资金转向债券期货，
[02:32.16]The shift will undoutedly cause the bond price go up.
[02:34.28]这会导致债券价格上扬。
[02:36.40]Another consequence is that,
[02:37.47]另一个结果是，
[02:38.54]in order to save the stock market form breaking and to guarantee the financial repaying ability,
[02:41.89]为了挽救行将崩溃的股市和保证金融偿还能力，
[02:45.25]the government will have to raise the interest rate and as a result, the bonds price will rise.
[02:48.33]政府必将会抬高利率，这也导致债券价格上涨。
[02:51.42]M:It's intersting.
[02:52.20]迈：真有意思。
[02:52.98]S:In fact, when I bought the contracts, the price was still falling until a week later.
[02:56.09]斯：实际上，我买了期货合同后，债券价格还在下跌，持续一星期左右。
[02:59.20]M:Did you doubt your prediction then?
[03:00.78]迈：那时你怀疑你的判断了吗?
[03:02.36]S:Yes, a little bit. I thought it over again and I strengthened my judgement.
[03:05.06]斯：是的，有点儿，但我想了又想，坚定了自己的推测。
[03:07.77]M:You finished the contracts at 86-18. But if the price will go up further,...?
[03:10.94]迈：你是在86-18的水平上结束了交易，如果它还会上涨呢?....
[03:14.12]S:It is quite possible. You know, it's also possible that it will go down.
[03:16.53]斯：那很有可能，但也有可能下跌。
[03:18.95]I think it's time for me to end the action.
[03:20.44]我们只想该是抛的时候了。
[03:21.93]M:It's really exciting. Maybe I will try it one day.
