听力课堂TED音频栏目主要包括TED演讲的音频MP3及中英双语文稿，供各位英语爱好者学习使用。本文主要内容为演讲MP3+双语文稿:在不可预知的世界中，我们能做些什么，希望你会喜欢！
【演讲人及介绍】Margaret Heffernan
作家，企业家玛格丽特·赫弗南（Margaret Heffernan）是五家企业的前首席执行官，她探索了导致组织和经理误入歧途的过分人性化的思维模式。
【演讲主题】不可预知的世界里需要哪些人类技能
【演讲文稿-中英文】
翻译者 Carol Wang 校对 Yanyan Hong
00:12
Recently, the leadership team of anAmerican supermarket chain decided that their business needed to get a lot moreefficient. So they embraced their digital transformation with zeal. Out wentthe teams supervising meat, veg, bakery, and in came an algorithmic taskallocator. Now, instead of people working together, each employee went, clockedin, got assigned a task, did it, came back for more. This was scientificmanagement on steroids, standardizing and allocating work. It was superefficient.
最近，一个美国连锁超市的领导团队决定，他们的业务需大幅提高效率，所以，他们热情地接受了数字化转型，原先的团队对肉类、蔬菜、烘焙的管理，而今被一个任务分配算法取而代之。现在，大家不再是一起工作，而是每个员工到公司打卡、领任务，完成任务后，再回来领更多任务。这类似于对类固醇的科学管理，将工作标准化后进行工作分配，它非常高效。
00:50
Well, not quite, because the task allocatordidn't know when a customer was going to drop a box of eggs, couldn't predictwhen some crazy kid was going to knock over a display, or when the local highschool decided that everybody needed to bring in coconuts the next day.
不过也不完全是，因为任务分配器不知道客户何时会把一盒鸡蛋掉到地上，也无法预测哪个皮孩子会在何时撞翻展示架，或者哪天当地高中会决定第二天让每人带椰子去学校。
01:07
(Laughter)
（笑声）
01:08
Efficiency works really well when you canpredict exactly what you're going to need. But when the anomalous or unexpectedcomes along -- kids, customers, coconuts -- well, then efficiency is no longeryour friend.
当你能准确预测出自己会需要什么时，效率非常重要。但是，当异常或意外出现时——如孩子、顾客、椰子——那么效率就不再是你的朋友了。
01:24
This has become a really crucial issue,this ability to deal with the unexpected, because the unexpected is becomingthe norm. It's why experts and forecasters are reluctant to predict anythingmore than 400 days out. Why? Because over the last 20 or 30 years, much of theworld has gone from being complicated to being complex -- which means that yes,there are patterns, but they don't repeat themselves regularly. It means thatvery small changes can make a disproportionate impact. And it means thatexpertise won't always suffice, because the system just keeps changing toofast.
这种处理意外的能力就变得非常关键了，因为意外情况会成为常态。这就是为什么专家和预测人员不愿意预测任何超过 400 天的事情。为什么？因为在过去的 20 或 30 年里，世界上的许多地方已经从繁杂变为复杂——这意味着，模式虽然存在，但它们不会经常重复。这意味着，非常小的变化可能会产生巨大影响；专业知识也许总是不够，因为系统变化太快。
02:08
So what that means is that there's a hugeamount in the world that kind of defies forecasting now. It's why the Bank ofEngland will say yes, there will be another crash, but we don't know why orwhen. We know that climate change is real, but we can't predict where forestfires will break out, and we don't know which factories are going to flood.It's why companies are blindsided when plastic straws and bags and bottledwater go from staples to rejects overnight, and baffled when a change in socialmores turns stars into pariahs and colleagues into outcasts: ineradicableuncertainty. In an environment that defies so much forecasting, efficiencywon't just not help us, it specifically undermines and erodes our capacity toadapt and respond.
也就是说，世界上有大量的东西现在无法预测。这就是为什么英格兰银行会说，“是的，会有另一次崩盘，但我们不知道为什么或何时发生。”我们知道气候变化是真实的，但我们无法预测哪里会有森林火灾，也不知道哪些工厂会发生洪涝。这就是为什么当一夜之间，塑料吸管、塑料袋和瓶装水从生活必需品变成人人喊打的产品，制造公司却会感到不知所措；当社会动荡的变化将明星变成弃儿、同事变成被驱逐的人时，他们会感到困惑：不可避免的不确定性。在令众多预测无效的环境中，效率不仅无法帮助我们，反倒会破坏和削弱我们的适应和应对能力。
03:16
So if efficiency is no longer our guidingprinciple, how should we address the future? What kind of thinking is reallygoing to help us? What sort of talents must we be sure to defend? I think that,where in the past we used to think a lot about just in time management, now wehave to start thinking about just in case, preparing for events that aregenerally certain but specifically remain ambiguous.
因此，如果效率不再是指导原则，那么，我们该如何应对未来呢？什么样的思考才能真正帮到我们呢？我们必须要捍卫什么样的才能？过去我们经常思考“及时管理”，现在，我认为我们必须开始考虑“以防万一”，为一般情况下虽然很确定，但仍不能完全掌握的情况做准备。
03:45
One example of this is the Coalition forEpidemic Preparedness, CEPI. We know there will be more epidemics in future,but we don't know where or when or what. So we can't plan. But we can prepare.So CEPI's developing multiple vaccines for multiple diseases, knowing that theycan't predict which vaccines are going to work or which diseases will breakout. So some of those vaccines will never be used. That's inefficient. But it'srobust, because it provides more options, and it means that we don't depend ona single technological solution. Epidemic responsiveness also depends hugely onpeople who know and trust each other. But those relationships take time todevelop, time that is always in short supply when an epidemic breaks out. SoCEPI is developing relationships, friendships, alliances now knowing that someof those may never be used. That's inefficient, a waste of time, perhaps, butit's robust.
其中一个例子是流行病预防联盟，即 CEPI。我们知道将来会有更多流行病，但不知何地、何时、是哪种流行病。所以我们根本无法计划，但我们可为此准备。因此，CEPI 正针对多种疾病开发疫苗，他们知道，无法预测哪种疫苗会起作用、或者说，哪种疾病会爆发。因此，一些疫苗将永远用不到。这样做的效率很低，但它很强大，因为它提供了更多选择，这意味着我们不再依赖于单一的技术解决方案。对流行病的响应能力很大程度上取决于相互了解和信任的人。但建立这些关系需要时间，当流行病爆发时，时间总不够用。因此，CEPI 眼下正在建立关系、友谊、联盟，深谙其中一些可能永远用不到。这可能效率低、浪费时间，但这种做法十分稳妥。
04:59
You can see robust thinking in financialservices, too. In the past, banks used to hold much less capital than they'rerequired to today, because holding so little capital, being too efficient withit, is what made the banks so fragile in the first place. Now, holding morecapital looks and is inefficient. But it's robust, because it protects thefinancial system against surprises.
在金融服务中，你也能看到稳健性思维。在过去，通常银行持有的资本远远少于今天所需的资本，因为持有如此少的资本、过于高效的做法 会首先使银行变得很脆弱。现在，持有更多资本 看起来效率低，也确实效率低。但它很稳健，因为它可以 保护金融系统免受意外。
05:29
Countries that are really serious aboutclimate change know that they have to adopt multiple solutions, multiple formsof renewable energy, not just one. The countries that are most advanced havebeen working for years now, changing their water and food supply and healthcaresystems, because they recognize that by the time they have certain prediction,that information may very well come too late.
对气候变化非常认真的国家知道，他们必须采用多种解决方案、多种形式的可再生能源，而不仅仅是一种。最先进的国家多年来一直致力于改变水和食品供应和医疗保健系统，因为他们认识到，就算他们预测到了，到那时候再搜集这些信息可能就太晚了。
05:57
You can take the same approach to tradewars, and many countries do. Instead of depending on a single huge tradingpartner, they try to be everybody's friends, because they know they can'tpredict which markets might suddenly become unstable. It's time-consuming andexpensive, negotiating all these deals, but it's robust because it makes theirwhole economy better defended against shocks. It's particularly a strategyadopted by small countries that know they'll never have the market muscle tocall the shots, so it's just better to have too many friends. But if you'restuck in one of these organizations that's still kind of captured by theefficiency myth, how do you start to change it? Try some experiments.
同样的方式也可以用来应对贸易战，许多国家也是这样做的。与其依赖一个强有力的贸易伙伴，不如试图成为每个人的朋友，因为他们知道无法预测，哪些市场可能会突然变得不稳定。所有这些交易的谈判耗时又昂贵，但它很稳定，因为它使整个经济体能更好地抵御冲击。小国家尤其喜欢采用这样的策略，他们知道靠自己的市场力量永远不可能做主，所以拥有朋友越多越好。但如果你陷入其中一个依然崇尚效率神话的组织里，你又如何开始改变呢？尝试一些实验吧。
06:50
In the Netherlands, home care nursing usedto be run pretty much like the supermarket: standardized and prescribed work tothe minute: nine minutes on Monday, seven minutes on Wednesday, eight minuteson Friday. The nurses hated it. So one of them, Jos de Blok, proposed anexperiment. Since every patient is different, and we don't quite know exactlywhat they'll need, why don't we just leave it to the nurses to decide?
过去在荷兰，家庭护理业的运作非常像超市：标准化和规定的工作量化到分钟： 周一 9 分钟、周三 7 分钟、 周五 8 分钟。护士们讨厌这些，所以其中叫乔斯·德·勃洛克 （Jos de Blok）的人 提议做一个实验。由于每个患者都不同，我们并不确切知道他们需要什么，为何不让护士来决定呢？
07:21
Sound reckless?
听起来很鲁莽吗？
07:22
(Laughter)
（笑声）
07:24
(Applause)
（掌声）
07:26
In his experiment, Jos found the patientsgot better in half the time, and costs fell by 30 percent. When I asked Joswhat had surprised him about his experiment, he just kind of laughed and hesaid, "Well, I had no idea it could be so easy to find such a hugeimprovement, because this isn't the kind of thing you can know or predictsitting at a desk or staring at a computer screen." So now this form ofnursing has proliferated across the Netherlands and around the world. But inevery new country it still starts with experiments, because each place isslightly and unpredictably different.
在实验中，乔斯发现，只需原来一半的时间，患者反而恢复得更好了，成本还下降了30％。当我问乔斯，实验的哪个部分让他感到惊讶时，他只是笑了笑，说道：“我没想到 这么容易就做出了如此巨大的改进，因为这不是你坐在办公桌前 或盯着电脑屏幕 就能了解或预知的事情。” “所以，现在这种形式的护理 已在荷兰和世界各地蔓延开来。但在每个新的国家，它仍然从实验开始，因为每个地方都有所不同，而且无法提前预测。
08:11
Of course, not all experiments work. Jostried a similar approach to the fire service and found it didn't work becausethe service is just too centralized. Failed experiments look inefficient, butthey're often the only way you can figure out how the real world works. So nowhe's trying teachers. Experiments like that require creativity and not a littlebravery.
当然，并非所有实验都有效。乔斯尝试了类似的消防服务方法，发现它没什么用，因为服务过于集中。失败的实验看起来效率低下，但它们往往是弄清现实世界如何运作的唯一方法。所以，现在他正在教育行业尝试。像这样的实验需要创造力，而不是单单一点勇气就可以的。
08:41
In England -- I was about to say in the UK,but in England --
在英格兰——我正准备说在英国呢，其实是在英格兰——
08:46
(Laughter)
（笑声）
08:48
(Applause)
（掌声）
08:53
In England, the leading rugby team, or oneof the leading rugby teams, is Saracens. The manager and the coach thererealized that all the physical training they do and the data-drivenconditioning that they do has become generic; really, all the teams do exactlythe same thing. So they risked an experiment. They took the whole team away,even in match season, on ski trips and to look at social projects in Chicago.This was expensive, it was time-consuming, and it could be a little riskyputting a whole bunch of rugby players on a ski slope, right?
在英格兰，领先的橄榄球队，或领先的橄榄球队之一是撒拉逊人 （Saracens）。球队的经理和教练意识到，他们做的全部体能训练 和数据驱动训练 已变得通用化； 实际上，所有球队都做同样的事情，所以，他们冒险做了一个实验。即使还在赛季中，他们依然带领整个团队去滑雪，并观察芝加哥的社交项目。这些活动费用很高，又耗费时间，让全队的橄榄球运动员待在滑雪坡上，可能还是有点冒险的吧？
09:32
(Laughter)
（笑声）
09:33
But what they found was that the playerscame back with renewed bonds of loyalty and solidarity. And now when they're onthe pitch under incredible pressure, they manifest what the manager calls"poise" -- an unflinching, unwavering dedication to each other. Theiropponents are in awe of this, but still too in thrall to efficiency to try it.
但他们发现，回来之后，球员们更加忠诚、团队关系更坚固了。而现在，当他们在球场上面临令人难以置信的压力时，他们能做到经理所说的“镇静”——一种彼此间坚定不移、毫不动摇的奉献精神。他们的对手对此感到敬畏，但又太被效率所束缚而不敢尝试这种方式。
10:05
At a London tech company, Verve, the CEOmeasures just about everything that moves, but she couldn't find anything thatmade any difference to the company's productivity. So she devised an experimentthat she calls "Love Week": a whole week where each employee has tolook for really clever, helpful, imaginative things that a counterpart does,call it out and celebrate it. It takes a huge amount of time and effort; lotsof people would call it distracting. But it really energizes the business andmakes the whole company more productive.
伦敦有一家名叫沃吾 （Verve）的科技公司，他们的首席执行官 量化了一切工作量，但她找不到 对公司生产力产生关键影响的东西。因此，她设计了一个 她称之为“爱之周”的实验： 整整一周，每个员工 必须寻找队友所做的非常聪明、 有益、富有想象力的事情，说出来，并赞美它。这需要大量的时间和精力；很多人会称它分散注意力。但它确实为企业注入了活力，使整个公司的生产力大幅提高。
10:44
Preparedness, coalition-building,imagination, experiments, bravery -- in an unpredictable age, these aretremendous sources of resilience and strength. They aren't efficient, but theygive us limitless capacity for adaptation, variation and invention. And theless we know about the future, the more we're going to need these tremendoussources of human, messy, unpredictable skills.
准备就绪、联盟建设、想象力、实验、 勇气 —— 在不可预测的时代，这些都是坚韧和力量的巨大来源。虽然它们的效率不高，但它们为我们提供了无限的适应、变化和创新能力。我们对未来的了解越少，就会越需要这些人类所拥有的杂乱的、不可预测的技能的巨大来源。
11:27
But in our growing dependence ontechnology, we're asset-stripping those skills. Every time we use technology tonudge us through a decision or a choice or to interpret how somebody's feelingor to guide us through a conversation, we outsource to a machine what we could,can do ourselves, and it's an expensive trade-off. The more we let machinesthink for us, the less we can think for ourselves. The more --
但是，随着对技术的日益依赖，我们正在削减这些技能。每次我们使用科技来推动做出决定或选择时、或者用科技来解读人的感受、或用科技引导我们完成对话时，我们是在将本来应该自己做而且能做的事情外包给机器去完成，这是一项昂贵的交换。让机器为我们思考得越多，我们就越不能为自己思考。越多的——
12:06
(Applause)
（掌声）
12:11
The more time doctors spend staring atdigital medical records, the less time they spend looking at their patients.The more we use parenting apps, the less we know our kids. The more time wespend with people that we're predicted and programmed to like, the less we canconnect with people who are different from ourselves. And the less compassionwe need, the less compassion we have.
医生看数字医疗记录的时间越多，他们用来问诊病人的时间就会越少。育儿应用程序用得越多，我们对孩子的了解就会越少。花费在预测我们会喜欢，或计划喜欢的人的时间越长，我们就越不会和与自己不同的人联系。我们需要的同情越少，我们的同情心就会越少。
12:41
What all of these technologies attempt todo is to force-fit a standardized model of a predictable reality onto a worldthat is infinitely surprising. What gets left out? Anything that can't bemeasured -- which is just about everything that counts.
所有这些科技都在试图用可预测现实的标准化模型去强制适应一个给你无限惊喜的世界。我们遗漏了什么？我们遗漏了所有无法衡量的东西—— 几乎都是非常重要的东西。
13:05
(Applause)
（掌声）
13:14
Our growing dependence on technology risksus becoming less skilled, more vulnerable to the deep and growing complexity ofthe real world.
我们对科技的日益依赖使我们面临自身技能变差的风险，使我们更容易受到深层和日益复杂的现实世界的影响。
13:29
Now, as I was thinking about the extremesof stress and turbulence that we know we will have to confront, I went and Italked to a number of chief executives whose own businesses had gone throughexistential crises, when they teetered on the brink of collapse. These werefrank, gut-wrenching conversations. Many men wept just remembering. So I askedthem: "What kept you going through this?"
当我想到我们必须面对的极端压力和动荡时，我曾找过一些首席执行官谈话，他们自己的企业都经历过生存危机，那时他们曾濒临崩溃的边缘。这些是坦诚而痛苦的对话，很多男子汉回顾往事都不禁潸然泪下。我问他们：“是什么让你克服了危机？”
14:05
And they all had exactly the same answer."It wasn't data or technology," they said. "It was my friendsand my colleagues who kept me going."
他们都有完全相同的答案。“不是数据或科技，”他们说。“而是我的朋友和同事们支持着我继续前进。”
14:17
One added, "It was pretty much theopposite of the gig economy."
其中一位补充说：“这与临时工性质完全相反。”
14:24
But then I went and I talked to a group ofyoung, rising executives, and I asked them, "Who are your friends atwork?" And they just looked blank.
后来我又去和一群年轻新晋高管交谈，我问他们：“工作中有谁是你朋友吗？”他们看起来很困惑，
14:33
"There's no time."
“没时间交朋友。”
14:35
"They're too busy."
“他们太忙了。”
14:37
"It's not efficient."
“交朋友效率低下。”
14:39
Who, I wondered, is going to give themimagination and stamina and bravery when the storms come?
我想知道的是，当暴风雨来临时，谁去赋予他们想象力、毅力和勇气呢？
14:51
Anyone who tries to tell you that they knowthe future is just trying to own it, a spurious kind of manifest destiny. Theharder, deeper truth is that the future is uncharted, that we can't map it tillwe get there.
任何试图告诉你他们知道未来的人，他们只是试图拥有未来，这是一种虚假的天定命运。更难、更深刻的事实是，未来是未知的，在它来临前，根本无法知晓。
15:10
But that's OK, because we have so muchimagination -- if we use it. We have deep talents of inventiveness andexploration -- if we apply them. We are brave enough to invent things we'venever seen before. Lose those skills, and we are adrift. But hone and developthem, we can make any future we choose.
但那没关系，因为我们有很多想象力——如果我们肯去想象的话。我们有创造和探索的深厚才能——如果我们肯应用这些才能的话。我们足够勇敢去发明以前从未见过的东西，同样，要是失去这些技能，我们只能随波逐流。但是，磨练和发展这些技能，我们就可以创造出我们选择的任何未来。
15:44
Thank you.
谢谢！
15:45
(Applause)
（掌声）
